Many are aware that the US Federal Reserve has printed as many state bonds and actually dollars that such money is enough to finance budgets of all countries of the world. To date, the US State Treasury Debt is more than 19.5 trillion. dollars.

Why did it happen so? Also, I think many are aware. The United States in the 90s, after the collapse of the USSR, began to build a global world. In this global world, there was a place for all, for example, the USA place was as the master of the world, the role of Western Europe is the role of the owner's favorite dog, or cats. In China, and another number of countries had the role of the production site, recreation countries were conceived, as well as the countries "raw materials", believe me, this phrase was invented in the United States, and only then translated into Russian. Countries "Commodities" can also be called "hopeless" countries. But about this in another story.

Actually, this idea was launched for a long time and became possible only after the collapse of the USSR, when it was possible to come anywhere in the world, where it was used to get along the header, and today you can buy a soul of good half of the population. But as usual, something went wrong. China has shown his own ambitions and clearly pulls the blanket of the overall well-being for himself, also the India was also drawn, about which nobody said 25 years ago, Europe also wanted himself a dog and, invented the EU with his own currency and a bunch of beggar saters, well, and a separate mansion costs Russia, in the eyes of the leaders of which is read by the dream "Fall US". And how it all started! What was the idea! US is the brain of the whole world, which produces weapons and super technologies, which no one has. All the not necessary production is transferred to China, Malaysia, Philippines, and the other, away from beautiful beaches of the United States. The United States is the first in everything: in space, in microelectronics, in armaments, microbiology, genetics, etc. But let's look at this list in 2016? The United States is not a leader in almost all above the listed areas, the production transferred to outsourcing quickly became local, mastered and developing with their own party. In the US, it was not possible to create a creative economy without a working class, a farmer who drilled goats 40 years could not become a highly qualified programmer, and the assembly of the collector, who twisted the nut on the wheel of the automotive factory for some reason became a very bad microbiologist. As a result, the United States received an increasing standard of living and at the same time reducing the economy by reducing production. Every year in the United States increased the number of people receiving unemployment benefits and other social benefits, and at the same time increased the US federal budget deficit. Than the United States compensated for the budget deficit is clear to all - the printing machine. In those distant 90s, namely, in the late 90s, the United States were confident that everything would be very quickly settled, but did not flatter. As a result, if today to analyze the financial situation in the United States, it will be bad to all, for example, the very 19.5 trillion. Dollars that the United States should Fed, it's a drop in the sea, because the debts of the states and corporations are not taken into account. And the debts are huge and exceed the government's debts many times. Such debts, or rather commitment, had to lead to a sharp collapse of the American currency.

And now let's go back to the topic of our conversation - what will happen if suddenly the dollar collapses today?

As you know, many financial transactions in the world occur in US dollars, almost all currencies of the world are tied to the dollar and the dollar in this situation acts as a modern gold standard. Thus, in the event of a collapse of the dollar, all the goods participated in international financial transactions will depreciate. Objects oil, gas, metals, food, fees for the use of trade routes, taxes and more. What will be the equivalent of gold (dollar)? And now imagine all sorts of billionaires, Arab Sheikhs, storage facilities (and not safes) which, before the failure, is clogged with dollar-based dollar securities. What do you think China has gold and foreign exchange reserves at the beginning of the year accounted for 3.3 trl. The dollars will be very happy if he suddenly reports that dollars fell 100 times in one night. It will mean that everything they sold the Chinese to the Americans they sold for 1% of the cost. Against this background, it becomes clear why Russia all over the world introduces mutual settlements in national currencies and makes a bet on gold and precious metals. In the event of the beginning of the global shukhra, it will not be called differently, you need to have in my hands as much as possible greens and as many real assets as possible. As long as it did not happen, and in the article by the Golden Gambit of Russia. Why Putin thousands of tons of gold. It is written in detail when this shukher can be activated. However, it is worth understanding that most dollars holders are not refundable from the dollar, because most of their accumulations are stored, and the United States in turn will never allow the holders of their securities to get rid of them. Thus, the collapse can occur only for two reasons. The first reason is the war or the possibility of its start. If China, India and Russia will begin to wave a bone in front of the US nose, then many US subjects may wage in the power of the owner and quickly start throwing off the bucks for a snot, trying to get anything. The second reason is a slow US deposition from the spheres of influence. But while Russia and Ko did not rebuild the economy of the world, there are practically no possibility for the collapse of the dollar and the United States.

ZY Obstacles that the United States builds Russia, China and other countries in the form of sanctions, trade restrictions and restrictions on access to trade routes only says that the United States fears the development of the scenario, according to which they lose their main trump card - the dollar.

Hello, dear readers of the Financial Journal "Site"! Today we will try to give answers to questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will cost the ruble and dollar in 2019; When the crisis is over in Russia and so on.

After all, today's economic situation causes excitement among Russian citizens of its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concerns, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some confuse the rise in prices for essential products. Many people retain money in rubles and worry about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, students, and pensioners concerned about the question: what will happen to the ruble / dollar in the near future?No one can give an accurate response to these questions, even experienced analysts are not solved on specific predictions.

Some experts say that our currency gradually strengthened, others, on the contrary, advise to wait for the rules to fall. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + forecast of the dollar for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - the latest news + our forecasts at the Rubble.

Reading the material to the end You will learn our vision according to the forecast of the ruble and dollar.

Want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, which will be with the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble of 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows well that the course of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions that conduct Western countries also affect the formation of national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even focusing on the policy of the work of the Central Bank.

The motive of entering sanctions against Russia was political actions in Ukraine, the beginning of which was laid in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. Due to which one part of the population began to resist. The first of their resistance began to express residents of the Crimean Peninsula.

The autonomous republic made the desire to exit from unitary Ukraine. So, B. 2014. A referendum was held who collected more 83 % votes For disconnecting from Ukraine and further addition of the peninsula to the Federation, as a subject.

The international community, headed by the United States, considered the accession of the peninsula to Russia to the consequence military Actions and act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of the Crimea want themselves Disconnect from Ukraine.

As known, October 14, 2014, Consional candidates for the European Union, joined the anti-Russian sanctions introduced by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to world capital. They also influenced the restriction of the work of such industries of Russia as oil and avioratories.

In particular, restrictions relate to such companies in the oil and gas industry of Russia:

• Rosneft;
• "Transneft";
• Gazpromneft.

Due to the actions of sanctions, such Russian banks have fallen:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• Gazprombank;
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The sanctions did not go around the industry of the Russian Federation:

• "Uralvagonzavod";
• "Oboronprom";
• "United Aircraft Corporation".

Sanctions are to prohibit residents of the European Union and their companies to perform operations with securities whose validity period more than 30 days , Help Russia in the extraction of oil products.

In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultation European companies. Also, the European Union has banned Russia technologies, equipment and intellectual property (programs, development) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.

Introduced sanctionsagainst some Russian companies that were prohibited to supply goods, services and technologies of special purpose in the European Union.

The limitations touched on many officials who are forbidden to use their assets placed in any of the European Union countries, not to mention the entry into the EU territory, which is also prohibited.

Canada introduced such sanctions. Citizens who were in the restrictive list of this country are forbidden to visit it, guided by any goals, and all assets posted on the territory of the country are frozen. Also companies that have fallen under sanctions, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide financing for more than 30 days.

Sanctions introduced by the US authorities Provide, first of all, supplies to the territory of Russia technologies, programs to support the military forces of Russia. Also, sanctions touched the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited by using spacecraft, in the development of which the US forces participated, as well as the components of which include elements, are developed by the state. Due to this ban, Russia could not launch the ASTRA 2G apparatus.

America banned to issue the list of Russian banks credit for more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of the authorized list of persons to the territory of the country, freezing their assets located in the state, the ban of Russia to participate in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks etc.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions is good hit in economics and the development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something, for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion on the actions from Russia to cancel sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support militia in the Donbas. It is clear that the Crimea will no longer be Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. Response sanctions of Russia, the European Union introduces response bans. Moreover, the EU and the US levers are more than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet introduced sanctions against the federation, thereby establishing their economic ties with them. This primarily concerns middle East countries .

Correcting, you can produce joint bonds, investment projects. This is understood by the Russian authorities themselves, but the decisive steps do not yet do.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with the countries of Asia will help Russia establish your export. Trade in oil products is now low, and all due to prohibitions and sanctions.

The expansion of oil and natural gas supplies will help Russia with time to achieve the share of the national currency stabilization.

No side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine, in the so-called black pit, at its own center. And at the same time, no one wants the final gap with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia had made a compromise that would have played undoubtedly a role. It is not worth to wait for such actions from the US government, "flashed under Russia, Trump finally lost its rating, which is not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and with the dollar in the near future - analysis and opinions of experts

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen with the ruble in 2019 📈📉

In recent years, the course of the national currency of Russia fell more, than 20%. There has not yet seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled about how the national currency will continue to behave. Especially this concerns people who are going buy or sell assets, the property, foreign currency And just people worried about the situation in the country. By the way, buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets can be of this broker .

The ruble exchange rate drops, and it is not known whether funds will be enough for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention the objects of luxury.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall of the price of oil and natural gas, and external restrictive sanctions made the ruble change their stable positions. And oil and gas, as you know, is more than 70% of the entire state budget.

The course of falling the ruble will also affect some countries that depend on cash flows by Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation and national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there remained only one way affecting the ruble exchange rate.

They argue that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. The basis The method is a set of measures that will be able to influence the course of inflation and credit policy of the country.

Experts allocate three basic scenarios about the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

1st script - optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to recovery and economic growth . It is expected to stabilize the price of barrel oil in Asia and Korea, which will grow to $ 95, and the dollar must acquire the former cost price 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the abolition of economic sanctions imposed by Western states in relation to Russia, which will affect the increase in the indicator on 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in the fall of 2019.

2nd script - alarming scenario

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Oil market collars only worsen the situation to stabilize the ruble exchange rate with respect to the dollar. If you turn to statistical data, it can be said that in 2016 the average dollar rate for the ruble ratio was 68 rubles, now the American dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

The plans of our government, in the opinion of some analysts and experts, are not at all adoption of measures to stabilize national work. Development of exports - this is what the efforts of the state are sent.

Of course, the export of goods will bring the country an additional income, as Russia copes with a production deficit. The capacity of state production forces does not allow to process the harvest collected by Russian farmers and excavation.

It is not necessary to wait that the ruble exchange rate stabilizes its indicators. If you turn to statistical data 2014-2015then it can be recalled that the percentage of waiting for the level of the internal gross product was equal to 0.2, but at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall of the economy can not have a positive effect on the course of the ruble. When calculating such a percentage of reducing the level of GDP, the cost of the barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, no matter how cool, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and external investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the influx of material funds into the country that always affects the economy of Russia.

With such, far from optimistic data, it can be said that the ruble exchange rate will start to lose their current positions.

This will be facilitated by several reasons:

• the first factor is to predict the decline in oil prices in the global market. What primarily concerns natural gas that its export brings a large proportion of the country's income. The same situation is projected in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• the second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent accession of Crimea led to the emergence of economic sanctions on the part of Western states, which also prevent the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The development of the Crimean Peninsula led to a large outflow of capital capital.

With such events, a decline in GDP is expected to an indicator that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar stabilizes, its cost will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd script - realistic scenario

According to the results of the vote, held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not cancel sanctions against Russia. You can confidently say that sanctions will not be canceled and they will remain at today. With a possible exacerbation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, sanctions will only increase.

As for the price of oil, then with this situation, it will remain the same price of 40-60 dollars per barrel. The level of GDP approaches zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator at all. The fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 % .

Causes of falling and growth of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Causes of growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In the current situation, every citizen of Russia follows the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. Many factors affect the decline and raising of the course. And now, more than ever, the Russians are important not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we wrote an article about and what you need to know the novice trader for successful trading on Forex.

What affects the behavior of the national currency?

* Rubble growth factors

Among many reasons, you can allocate those that provide positive action on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Politics of the country. This factor directly Located with the course of the ruble, especially in the current situation today. Of course, the majority of government decisions are accepted for the benefit of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Investing Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contribute to the stabilization of the ruble on the global market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities, as a process, weakly developed. Perhaps soon, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital , while in this case, income in the form of dividends.
• Cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has Rich oil resources . And the oil is enough not only for the needs of the country, but also to export it to countries that do not have such a resource. Sale of oil Russia enriches its state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then income, respectively, the country gets less.
• Population attitude to national currency. It is immediately incomprehensible, what's the point in these words, normally people relate to it. People stop trust National currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate. The more the national currency will be attracted, the better the country's lending policy will be, respectively, the growth of the economy will not wait long. Moreover, the situation is ideal when foreign investors want to invest money in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be stability of the economy. Therefore, residents of the Russian Federation as residents, so I. foreigners, have a big impact on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the pace of national production. The increase in this indicator will allow not only the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. The high volume of production will ensure not only the needs of the country, but also export goods and products that will bring additional income for the state budget.

* Factors of falling ruble

On weight with all positive factors, also exist factors negatively affecting the ruble . They depreciate the ruble exchange rate, in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge influence, our government should thoroughly take measures to prevent them.

1. Flow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets in foreign states. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to translate money and their investments in foreign currency. Exchangeing your cash savings in a different currency, we ourselves, not suspect, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. Thus, capital conclusion occurs from Russia. This devoid affects the positions of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative for the country of action is the fall in industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their own low welfare.
2. Foreign currency course. In this situation, the advanced currency is precisely the one that has persistent positions in the global foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is a dollar that has persistent positions, thanks to the constant measures from the United States aimed at strengthening the country's national currency. America confidently strengthens its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar's course by America, the ruble loses its position. Apply measures to prevent the fall of the course, in such a situation, even by all the forces of the Russian economy, is simply impossible.
3. Population with currency courses. The desire to make money on the course of currencies arises from most Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. Thus, people provide themselves with a reliable storage of their savings through a stable currency. In moments of strong fall of the ruble exchanged huge translations exchange of Russian money in foreign currenciesthat also provides the fall in the national course. Such actions confirm the fact of distrust of the Russians to the government, especially their promises that the ruble rate will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures. During the fall of the national currency rate, the bank refuses the ruble to convert to the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant drop in the ruble.
5. The share of the internal gross product. The production of Russia, by and large, stands on the spot, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small proportion of its own goods and products that income received from their sale is enough for salary to employees. Public enterprises are in place working on the old equipment. The equipment that remains since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working on the power that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people to domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Stagnation of economics. This factor is the consequence of the low proportion of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, a stagnation of the national economy and is the result of preference to foreign goods, when choosing a product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for about the same price category as the domestic manufacturer. West is famous for its own advanced technologies production than, unfortunately, Russia can not boast. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producer country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's payment balance, which directly affects the fall of the national currency rate.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the opinion of experts 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can concrete economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one can say one thing that 2019 will clearly become a difficult test for russians, national Economy and for rubble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning forecasts on this occasion of some economic experts.

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Through the Tools tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currency, etc.) are available. The "Analytics" tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts.

Former finance minister of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the economy of the country is subject to a huge decline. This opinion was the political situation for today. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the course of the ruble.

Modern economist Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, raising the economy and the achieved level of stability is only a temporary phenomenon that will soon lead to the ruble collapse as the national currency.

Falling the ruble as national currency and strong dollar growth foreshadows and Nikolay Salabuto . Having taught the head of the Finnam Management Company, the reason for this situation connects to the frequent fall of oil prices over several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that some factors influenced this:

• restrictive sanctionswho will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil that will decrease. This is due to Western competitors who export black gold on more favorable terms. The United States increases the export of oil every year, thereby overlapping oxygen for large Russian deliveries;
• national economywhich depends entirely on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. Russian economy requires constant modernization and development by government bodies.
• Federal Reserve USwhose policies will be related to some events.

Igor Nikolaev expresses an opinion about actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that today's measures and methods of the Central Bank are perfectly true, and there is no need to expose the bank to rethink.

But this will not affect the stabilization of the national currency rate, the drop in which will not be able to prevent. To eliminate such a situation, according to the head of the company "Finnam Management", it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors induced above, as they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Hestanov The director of Alfa Group of Companies "Alor" believes that conditionally the falling factors of the ruble exchange rate can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that do not have justifications from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Hestov includes first of all, the opinions of experts (as each of them expresses the originally its point of view, guided by those, or other factors), as well as cash outflow.

The objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are the external sanctions of other states, and the country's foreign debt.

The behavior of these factors is impossible to predict, but the analyst is confident that the cost of oil in 74 dollars per barrelwill lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. Such a price will contribute to the decline on 10-15 % From today's value of the ruble.

Opinion of a modern financial analytics, Vitaly Kulagin , more encouraging. He believes that the position of the ruble today is homepage. Analyst says that in 2019 the national currency will adapt to the current situation and will begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before taking the position and opinion of some of them, it is necessary to understand the power of factors affecting the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - News and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar in comparison with the ruble. This dependence is displayed as follows: with the growth of dollar, oil price decreases, respectively ruble loses its position . With the increase in oil prices, the dollar falls, and the ruble is growing.

Schedule of the cost of the ruble from the cost of oil

It is impossible to predict oil price in 2019. External Economic Bank predicts the cost of 6 0 dollars per barrel and above . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is $ 70, and the support level is 42 dollars.

Thanks to the news on the reduction of oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of barrel oil is growing. Resistance at this stage is $ 69-70. When "breakdowns" of these levels, the price of oil probably "will go" by $ 98-100. When "breakdowns" down $ 58 - Care in the range of 53-58 $

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil ranked the position of the absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal 28 dollars per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: fresh news + expertforecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble cannot stabilize its position on other foreign currencies, such as dollar and euro. By virtue of severe economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its cost.

Some foreign states, surviving economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. Foreign policy actions held by the state cause many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and the course of the national currency, in particular.

The oscillations of the ruble can be associated with different internal and foreign policy actions from the state and its government.

The World Bank Gives quite Comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble stabilizes in 2019, and the dollar will cost approximately 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it stabilizes at 63 dollars per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina Recently expressed its opinion on the country's economy in one of the interviews for the leading channel. Prices of the ruble and oil she did not name, but stated that the US policy to implement measures to strengthen the dollar will also support the currency of some states, among which Russia. The fall in the national course, according to the Chairman of the Central Bank, has occurred due to the fall in the price of oil, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank it believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be equal 55-58 rublesIf the OPEC policy will contribute to raising the quotations on the barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development It is evolving that financial cash flows are sent to our country will reduce at least 10 percent. The reason for such an opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external loan restrictions. There is a threat of rapid exhaustion of production capacity, as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that this industry, as oil and gas, is also injured, due to lack of financing, and as a result of the impossibility to work at full capacity. Changing the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect currency relations, which will not play our currency benefit.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank. , the third size in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts of the Russian national currency. One US dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs. , by 2019 the course of the national currency will be equal 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year $ 70 will be equal for barrel.

All world banks It is converged in one opinion that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthened. Prediction of rising oil prices can not but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole will have to stock patience and luggage action, after all, the rapid return of the past is not worth waiting for.

7. Frequently asked questions on the ruble and dollar courses 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that in 2019 will cancel the dollar?

The question of the abolition and restriction of the American currency is for some time the population is expanding. From time to time, this question rises in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government takes all sorts of actions to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, Which is the post of advisor to the president, proposed its plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the Plan is just a decrease in dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a response.

It is clear that completely excluding the dollar from the country will not succeed, since this currency is the basis of the financial global system. The state policy is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the national currency of Russia.

for example, Trade in the national resource of Russia, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will make the dollar in relation to the ruble. In cases of solving large countries, to sell Treasury bonds of America, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire financial system of the USA will collapse.

City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov Assesses the chances of canceling the dollar in the country, as minimal. Kichatov declares that it will become a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, it predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expects, as the savings of the population are more stored in dollars.

Anton Sorok. Does not exclude partial disappearance of dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a lot of time that in the end will lead to the emergence of two courses of shadow turnover. In an example, he leads Venezuela. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast of the ruble rate to the dollar for the next week?

In forecasting the course should not take into account News events, policySince when drawing up a forecast for the near future, these factors are not taken into account, they are too concise and unstable.

Since the special change and stabilization of the course will not be foreseen, the ruble rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles In relation to the dollar, as there are no special reasons for stabilizing the course.

We remind, fresh forecasts and analytics about the dollar, ruble and other tools for the next day, week, month can be found link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall in the near future?

The ruble exchange rate, as mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investment will be commissioned in Russian capital, assets and economy, the reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process, as investing in the Russian economy, is associated with the position of the dollar in the country.

The course of the US currency also affects import balance and export . These indicators, for good economical growth of the country, must have a corresponding level. The situation is ideal when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, it allows you to enrich the state budget.

Speaking about this balance, it is necessary to remember that America has big State Duty . In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, it forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as the global currency, should fall.
But questions arise, why with such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar, as the American currency is the highly liquid and most convertible currency in the world. Why are the forecasts of experts from year to year do not come true, and the dollar remains the most demanded currency of the world? ? What consequences of falling a dollar can be?

If still falling the dollar will happen another currency should come to replace. It is necessary to think what currency could replace the dollar in terms of conversion, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts lead euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the European Union's currency is relatively young, which is now also experiencing not the most simple years. Many countries of the European Union are experiencing economic crisis . This is first Greece, Portugal, Spain other.

Wine such a stagnation is also a large debt of America these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely from its course.

The dollar remained the most stable currencyEven when all countries experienced a default period and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in price. It helped the dollar to strengthen its position even more. Even in the crisis, when everything was depreciated, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion, many countries are used as a currency basket. it is the dollar . This diversification occurs to preserve accumulated money and their possible increase.

This method uses such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia And many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket, contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself does everything possible to hold the course of its currency at a high level. If you believe that the wine of the economic crisis was and was one of the "powerful moves" by America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

The method of maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008 it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period was printed more than a trillion dollars.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, since the demand for the dollar did not decrease. While the demand for the national American currency is, the dollar will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the rejection of the dollar, as from the currency;
2. if countries cease to trade through the dollar, the US financial system will fall. Russia actively conducts actions on this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, it was just unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then to pay the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country in trading and buying will use its national currency, not a dollar, then the course of the latter will go down. Countries simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less demanded.

Question number 4. Will the dollar grow in 2019?

We have already described in detail possible forecasts at the dollar. The dollar can both grow and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed is planning to raise a percentage rate in the near future, which can negatively affect the ruble.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: Fresh news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions on the course of the ruble and the dollar, analyzing the market, conducting their own, mainly technical analyzes.

* Forecast of the dollar rate for the near future

From the last technical analysis it follows that the probability of falling the dollar below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, carry out analytics and make forecasts it should be independently. No one knows exact forecasts !!!

If you want to independently start trading on the Forex market, we recommend using the services of this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + video on the topic 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world-renowned banks and analytical experts, you can hope for an ambulance stabilization of the National Course of Russia. It is only necessary to stock up with certain baggage patience, strengthening the ruble rate will soon occur.

But despite such rainbow prospects, it is worth understanding that Russia today has a not the best economic situation, to affect which different actions can, and not only internal , but also external Political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

A very shaky situation, the deficit of the national budget and the external sanctions do not give rest to residents of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years, Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and collar reserves. We managed to stop the waste, but if oil prices continue their decline, Russia expects Russia full budget deficit.

After all, the income of the country will fall significantly, and considerable funds are required to maintain the functioning level of the economy of the economy of such a huge state. Opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, promising, but should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency exchange rate. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and wait for improving the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of economy and the level of the internal gross product.

But you need to look at today's situation across the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but to promote them buying goods National production I. making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you now realized that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?", Everyone is looking for himself, making their forecasts and relying on its principles.

If you have questions and wishes, ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we propose to view an interesting video.

October 9th, 12:25

If you still ask a question: collapses or not collapse, then the answer is already known - collapses. But why will it happen? If you answer one phrase: the United States shaveled and got everyone. Even those who have not followed and ignore so clearly.

What was always the power of the dollar? It is that it is a reserve currency of the whole world and the only one in his own way. Plus, all calculations for oil and other energy carriers are also occurring in dollars, or petrodollaras. These two pillars who have held afloat for the last decades and the dollar itself, and the economy of this hegemon. Of course, it is impossible to say that the strength was only in the dollar, but a lot of control levers and the US passages received precisely at the expense of the currency status.

As history shows, while the reserve currency that uses in a large area causes respect and trust - it is alive and brings wealth to its owner. So it was with Britain, so it was with ancient Rome. But, unfortunately, people of creatures are quite greedy and occurs when the currency begins to depreciate: either due to the dilution of non-precious cheap metals, or due to the casual currency from any provision, as happened to the dollar in 1971, when Nixon President ordered no longer paid debts in gold.

Since then, only paper, built only on thin ice confidence in the dollar remained.

Even since that time a lot of water has flowed, the world has changed and accelerated. New players grew up, lost strength and restored the old one. America has become the owner of the world. But before the last pair of decades, she strangged about it, with some tact.

But with each subsequent year arrogance, the sharing of action and decisions led more and more people and countries to dissatisfaction or even rabies.
And all this affects the very trust, on which the dollar holds.
The last two (in terms of chronology, but not yet the result) have become events over the past year: conflicts on monetary soil with an ally and geopolitical enemy. Let's start with the allies.

Some time ago, the United States of America demanded from the French bank BNP Paribas fine in the amount of $ 9 billion. Something fines in billions have become popular recently ... So - the fine they took for the fact that France had a case with the state called Sudan, against whom the United States has its own list of sanctions (so not Russia is sanctions).
The weird situation is that in France, as in the whole EU, there are no problems with Sudan and no sanctions are not imposed. This is an ordinary international deal, which is made by hundreds and thousands daily. The monetary translation itself, implemented from France in Sudan, also did not have a direct connection with the United States (ie, through American banks did not pass). At the same time, neither American goods nor American services were sold. The staff from the American side in the transaction was also not invited. In general, nothing foreshadowed trouble, since the only restriction against Sudan - in the United States.
But the US fine was discharged with ease, which means they had some reason to suck their nose in other people who do not concern the states. And this reason turned out to be the fact that the deal between France and Sudan was carried out in the evergreens of US dollars. The amount was nominated in dollars.
So the only reason why the United States considers themselves to have the right to interfere in any international deal - this is the use of dollars as a reserve currency in interstate transactions. And if the prohibitions of the states themselves are violated, as with Sudan, the rest will also answer according to the laws of the United States - because you use the American currency.
All France stood up on so much after such turning of the events. There are many movements spoken for the refusal to use the dollar - after all, France country is large and herself can decide with whom to trade and work, the more else there is an EU with which these desires are agreed. No one in France wants the dollar empire to solve what can be, and what can not be done.
And since France still has weight in the EU, it can insist that the transactions in dollars go to reduce. And these are billiona and trillion losses for the United States. Currency is not used, it does not trust it - it loses its value.
And the second conflict that grows in front of the eyes is the desire of Russia to abandon the use of dollars in energy trading: oil and gas. And this is, by the way, the huge market. Only the carbon market is 1 trillion dollars. There will be no trade - there will be no demand - there will be no strong currency.
And Russia is ready for this: negotiations with Iran, with China, with the same Europe for the transition to oil referrals, petroleum, petroleum, etc. If only to get away from the dollar. If you remember the near-minded story, then before invading the territory of Iraq, Saddam began an ulcer from petrodollar with the desire to switch to euros in the calculations. Some experts believe that this is what it ruined him.
A similar situation is observed today with Russia: as soon as concrete steps on dislocate issues from the dollar in some strategic directions, Ukraine flared, Russia was accused of attacking Russia, etc. And now, instead of introducing a peacekeeping contingent, to ensure reliability of negotiations and research of a shot Boeing, the United States accuses Russia, send offshore recommendations not to work with the Russians, force the EU to introduce sanctions unprofitable for them and pretend to help Ukraine.

In Russia, the troops simply do not enter so, so the empty will act. But unlike Iraq, who did not have special support to the side of the neighbors or by the world, Russia has BRICS, there are SCOs, etc. Organizations. And most countries belonging to these economic blocks are interested in getting rid of the village of Dollar.
And if they give up with their trillions from dollars, then allies from the EU will calmly go away, while in the United States will take a tough or not very fit.
America brought its allies and partners in world arena to extremes. Would behave politely, remained at the height. But uncontrolled power often hits the head. Especially those who did not receive it with their own hands, but he inherited from the ancestors. In America, all signs of deterioration of the situation are observed, both within the country and on the geopolitical arena. And all this affects trust - on the only thing that still somehow supports the losing price of the dollar.

Baks collapse))

In general, you all as incorrectly understand.
It is not collapsed by a dollar, the dollar is becoming more expensive in danna - and it collapses just ruble)
At the same time, if you look attentively, other currencies are as it were in the balance sheet, that is, crisis of course global, but not a global market collapse.
The ruble "collapses" is also not easy, but according to plan.
Another thing is that we absolutely do not imagine what it is for the plan and whose he is.
But when did they ask us?
Some opinions are present, but their public is better not to voice.

In any case, we saw how it was when the dollar collapsed when interest in banking rates in America were taken.
We also hit this and quite noticeably, but this is just because our economy is very rigidly connected with foreign capital.

So what is the collapse of the national currency and where can the dollar collapsed?
Let's think ...
The average working American, lives in the dollar space, receives a salary in dollars, and spends it also in dollars.
How can the dollar collapsed in America?
It seems to be an American, you do not need to tie myself to the course - I received a salary and live on it) Well, what does he matter to how many rubles are given for 1 dollar. All the same, how many Kazakh tenge give per ruble))

What is scary the collapse of the dollar for a resident of America?
It simply suggests the answer - change the purchasing power of the national currency.
Suppose 1 dollar is 1 loaf of bread.
And Zavtra is already Polbukhanki.
And the day after tomorrow is a quarter.
That is, the fact that the first January, the American could buy on his salary, he cannot buy in the same volume on February 1.
That's terribly.
After all, it continues to work for the same salary and quickly change the work in the conditions of this crisis cannot.
His standard of living is the faster, the lower the purchasing power of his money ...

Let's spend parallel with the ruble.
We, as always, "two troubles" - the ruble and dollar))
The fall in the purchasing power of the ruble actually, we probably cause the same macro and micro economic factors as the fall of any currency within their country. And causes the same problems as in any country.
But this is what the problem is additional - our economy is closely related to the economies of other countries through the Togrovnya energy resources.

Why does the dollar affect the ruble so much. Excellent - Why is the ruble rate vary in relation to the dollar?
Yes, everything is simple. Updated all kinds of economic subtleties, you can imagine such a scheme.
The owner of the oil well)) I decided to buy myself a house (Palace, apartment, yacht))). He needs 1 billion dollars. While oil is sold and costs $ 100 per barrel - he receives his profit and is quite happy with life. And sells 1 million barrels per month for example. Of these 100 dollars - 50 of its consuming part. This is the depreciation of the equipment and salary of all workers and all payments of taxes.

But I will imagine that because of any problems (Crimea, for example), sales fell on Halmillion Bareleley per month.
On the face the shortage of his balance.
What can be done in this case?
You can raise the price of the goods. And then, if possible, oil is becoming more expensive. But let's say that, because of the reasons, it is impossible to do this.
Can I reduce taxes and bribes ?? Unrealistic...
Is it possible to reduce your profits?
You can, but I don't want it)) This is why the yacht is new for 2 months you can't buy, but they are so greedy))) then they are diamonds, then apartments, then cars ...
One thing remains - since the price for oil goes in dollars and euros, and salaries pay in rubles, that is, a wonderful way to make more rubles from one dollar.
Not losing anything without changing their profits and not breaking any agreements, you can simply increase your ruble income on ...
30/100 \u003d 0.3 p ... 36 / 0.3 \u003d 120%
So the increase in 20% of profits.
Never.

And the fact that the worker instead of 30k rubles (1000 dollars)
Get 30K rubles (833 dollars)
Well, who cares?
If he eats Makfa's pasta - this is in principle and the working worker is not much.
And if the tours on vacation and cars rise in price by 40% (we always have a total of 20% when we increase the price of a dollar at least 40-50%, why? Yes, just like that)) - Well, who cares about the worker car?

Well, something like this)

As for the EUR / USD course
His dynamics still remains inside the normal inflation rising channel.
Historical minimum for this pair 1 11 05 - 1.17
Maximum was marked 1 08 08 - 1.57
Another subsidence after the fall began 1 07 12 from the mark of 1.22
Support lines
10,11,13 - 1,33... 2,02,14 - 1,34
Resistance line
30,12,13 - 1,38 ... 18,03,14 - 1,39
No catastrophe on this pair
As well as on other currencies

Why is everyone so worried about this rise on a pair of rub-dol ??
From August 2008 to January 2009 Couple rub-dollar slipped from 23 rubles for 1 dollars to 36 rubles for 1 dollars.
13 rubles (+ 50% per value) for 6 months!
And no particular anxiety.
And here just 5 rubles a course rose and so much shout)
What is suddenly now ??

Of all this shows that with other currencies, nothing will happen. If the dollar does not (the probability is 0.00001%, but not least)) - other countries will simply trade directly with their currencies and a convenient tool for quotations will simply go to another common currency - on euro or even ... on the ruble)
There is no difference because it's just paper. And now there are also numbers in the computer ... gather, agree and become trading further. And the weeks will not need)
Our just find out why they will sell at home and cars and diamonds in Europe, and it is for it that will turn into oil and gas.
If Europe is to invent common measure for too long, then our sellers will simply bring in buckets and change in Europe at home))

For a long time, it strains me a complete lack of understanding of the economy and finance, which I observe in the Russian-speaking world.

And I say, first of all about that absolutely won and all the famous wording that the dollar is a green paper and it is now replacing Yuan from China.

So in order - the economy 101 for beginners.

1. Currency of China Yuan, or as it is also called Rhinemombi, now it does not have free walking and exchange for any other currency in the floating, free scheme. Those. It is free not converted. On the contrary, Yuan is tightly tied to the US dollar about $ 1 \u003d ~ 6.24 yuan. And if so, the yuan cannot be considered a backup currency. It can not even be considered a strong currency, as it does not have a real market assessment, without constant binding to the dollar. And if the dollar decreases or rises - the yuan just jested with him remaining ~ 6.24. The course changes only when the Chinese take a centralized solution to raise or raise yuan. Thus, de facto - yuan, the same dollar, only divided by 6+ parts and with Mao Zedoune on him.

2. If the state has an export economy - a free currency is needed for him. Cheap - that is, in relation to the leading other currencies, especially from those countries where the export of a given country is exported with low currency. If the currency of the exporter's country is expensive, then export becomes expensive and the benefit falls. And therefore, that is why China hard holds the yuan artificially understated and at the same time tied towards the dollar, as the Chinese economy depends on this - one of the leading export powers of the world. The cheap currency gives its advantages to export, but kills internal consumption, due to the fact that inflation and payment facility of this country weigh too little in real purchased ability. Have at the same time a cheap currency for export and high purchased ability inside the country - it is impossible. Either one or another.

3. The Chinese economy grew quite recently about 10-11% per year. There was an export to rich buyers, about 900 million people and they live 98% in the developed Western countries of Europe, America, Asia and Oceania. If this export to the country's data drops, then the percentage of growth is reduced. What is happening now and happening with China. Why do their exports fall? Here is a set of reasons. And the quality is bad; And they only take a cheap price; And there was a correction in the production market in the West, which made profitable production in the Western countries themselves. Not a small role is played by the Logistics of China itself. If earlier cheap sneakers and nails produced the ports of China, shipping the goods immediately to the ship and sending to America, now the production of the same sneakers and nails in these cities have risen in price. Inflation, the high flow fluidity, corruption - makes Chinese business highly turbulent and stay in one place for a long time. The cost of production moved Chinese plants to the periphery - it means that the cost of the same sneakers and nails add transportation, storage, insurance. Plus again, the labor price is growing even in China. For a cup of rice - no longer work. And all this means that other countries of the region, ready to work cheaper, begin to pull out this business to themselves. And China loses on it and its export falls, as the percentage of growth falls.

4. Knowing that growth falls and exports goes away - China still wants to make its currency freely convertible. Since it will immediately rise in price in approximately $ 1 \u003d 2 yuan. And this is an almost death sentence export, which already as we know fall. Those. When it goes bad - no one in the right mind wants to add to this "bad" and do "even worse." Because the Russian political wet dreams that this is the Chinese Uncle will help them due to the introduction of the convertibility of the yuan and getting rid of the damned dollar - nothing but their complete illiteracy is not supported. China will endure the dollar until it compares the dependence of external exports with internal consumption. In numbers, this means that Chinese growth will fall somewhere up to 4-5% per year, which is already very good and approximately as good indicators in the developed Western economies in the world. This will not happen sharply - in China, they do not want social exclusions and therefore blown their economy with exports to domestic demand gradually. Reduced growth below 7% is considered dangerous and may apply to the revolution in the communist system of the country. Thus, in itself, this is intelligent, in their position, the decision, if China did not slow down and due to other reasons, the above me described and not controlled by them.

5. Miscellaneous barter exchange between two countries - such as you are sneakers, and we are cotton to you, or even the use of national currencies in two-way exchange - nothing in general does not change the world scheme. Since, as I said above, Yuan is not a free walking, convertible currency, but is a reduced version of the American dollar. The irony is that today the Russian ruble is just a freely convertible currency, but there is no yuan. But since the ruble has no potential strength on a global scale, then no replacement for its dollar or the more use as a global reserve currency can not be. No matter how much barter deals, Russia with individual countries does not produce - it matters only the world market, and not local national exchanges.

6. There are many reserve currencies in the world today. But of them, in fact, the world and at the same time unprofitable never and in all three: the English pound, the American dollar and the Japanese yen. I will say why so - they have free walking and exchange. Fall and rises mainly depending on the market, not the pleasure of the state. And most importantly - the printing machine of these currencies in the hands of central bank banks. Thus, default these countries never threaten. Let the currency depreciate with some ashors, but it will never end. More recently, the dollar was Döshev, since the state stimulated exports to the height of the crisis. Now when the economic steam boiler is heated by 5% of the growth in a quarter, which is very good, the dollar stopped typing and it automatically rose - or went up. All enthusiastic cries of 4 years ago that the dollar is bend (cheaper) frozen on the fly, since it was a temporary measure that the strokes did not understand how they did not hit them on December 17, 2014.

7. For the next 30, I do not see any real competitor to the US dollar. China, if he wants to introduce the convertibility of the yuan, will think 100 times over it, since - we read the reasons for me described above. There are no other real currencies in principle. The euro, generally proved his clothes, as it is a collective currency - and in highly socialist Europe, it has become like an unmanaged collective farm. I doubt that the Germans will be able to get everyone else to become the same as they themselves. And if so, it is quite possible that part of the countries will be removed from the eurozone. In any case, this is a very bad scenario for the next 10 years at least. Socialism was good, while you could spend other people's money. And now he turned out to be bankrupt.

8. No global currency is provided with gold. In addition to the pathos about the gold standard - nothing will be. And this is because gold as metal and gold as a currency have a different cost. I explain popular. The gold coin is obliged to have a certain purity of gold and a certain, permanent weight. Otherwise, it is considered - "a twisted coin." Gold as metal - has a high amplitude of cost vibrations on the open market. And if you imagine a completely permanent situation that gold rose and potentially a coin, say $ 10, as a metal cost $ 15, then it will simply be overwhelmed and sell. If the price of gold has fallen as a metal, the panic will begin and the sharp disposal from gold coins as a payment agent by their exchange to something else. Since gold is traded in the global market - no matter where it was mined and sold - the price is more or less than one everywhere. From South Africa, to Nevada, to Uzbekistan, to Australia, is one of the main centers for gold mining. And because it is in our time exactly that - no sensible financier will make the Golden Standard. Since it will go bankrupt him and the country is faster than the highest inflation. Because Russian phintiles with an increase in gold reserves - nothing means and do not change even if they have 20 times more. The laws of the economy - as the law of physics and their Putin does not change.

9. Will China refuse to buy American bonds or throw out to the market in order to sell - accumulated US dollars? Most probably not. Causes are quite simple.

A. Throwing everything in stock, blood earned dollars, China will change them with great loss for themselves.

B. While China buys American Treasury Bonds - he does not disinterestedly, and not from altruistic considerations, but for the purpose. Due to the purchase of bonds - there is a actual maintenance of the level of sales market in the US, which they need. Fall this level and first of all will lose the Chinese themselves on the born exports.

V. If we imagine that they refused to finance our bonds and thrown out / changed dollars - then the dollar is estimated by 15-20%, which is painful, but not catastrophically. While the Chinese export loses at once about 60% of the cost at once. Is the difference?

If China wants to realize his dollar assets - the only way, it is to invest them in the West. Or again help the American economy. They can build plants, skyscrapers, shops, roads, bridges - Please build on health as much as you like. But only in America - otherwise the problem of the Chinese and their avalanches of paper money are only deteriorating. By the way, it is precisely this that the insane number of Chinese buyers of expensive homes and apartments in America is explained. They are full of papers, which they thus provide real cost. And where can it be better and more reliable than buy many millionth apartments in New York or estate in Florida? Yes, anywhere in the world, a sharp deficit of places and ideas to actually attach earned money. And since it works fine with us, then there is no threat from these Chinese buyers - let them live in joy, make a business and enjoy whiskey with soda - in America there will be enough space in America.

To the most extreme case - well, there will be no China's strength to threaten with fucked recycles to America? Therefore, having a big dollar mass, "you still need to think about who sat black is more - the one who paid it or the one who accepted it to pay.

A couple of times the question was asked, and what will happen if China refuses to sell his real good "for any uncompressed green candy"? I'll just say:

Firstly, this will not be. The Chinese guys are smart and will not go to this - since for them it will be problematic.

Secondly, if in the theory to imagine that they went to such, then the sacred place is not empty - to take a niche for the release of sneakers and nails for US citizens worth a large line of those who want.

Thirdly, if you suddenly imagine that all the horn rushed and the dollar does not take. And the dollar on this wave of negativity and the refusal of the Chinese to finance the budget fell in connection with this. In such a figure, this is the same immediately means that the production of sneakers and nails will become profitable in place in America itself, due to the reduction in labor and the dollar. After all, there is no sense that no secrets to sew sneakers or label nails have not been 300 years old. And if so, it means a new plant for the production of these goods will work in America in 3-4 months. And a year later, the deficit will disappear at all. Thus, production returned to the native house, everyone got a job, the dollar is growing again and the main thing remains inside the country. The Chinese at the same time remained with the Green Paper, and the wishes are not sad.

10. Often I hear - that the dollar is not secured. Immediately make a reservation - to list that myriad of things and indicators that America produces, I'm not going. But this "nothing" is 25% of the entire global economy. And this is not slippers and nails of Chinese production for a stronghold (which is undoubtedly necessary), and mostly high-technological production cycle, thin high technologies, the development of fundamental science, pharmaceutical and chemical industries.

Also, do not forget that America spends almost 700 billion dollars for military spending. No, gentlemen strokes, do not enjoy - this money is 82% not going to the war and the establishment of democracy, where it is not necessary. 82% of this goes to technological developments that have a dilent feature within 30 years after that to move into civilian production. From there, the Internet appeared and a mobile phone appeared from there. From there came new kinds of fastest, and very lung alloys, which are now used in the construction of expensive skyscrapers. Therefore, investments in military crafts are a very profitable and long-term business and investment. All this "nothing" is fully appreciated and is used in the world without any remorse, since it is considered one of the best.

11. Finally, I will say about the most painful for the Great Russian Soul - American Duty. Yes, he is the most terrible and big at par. However, its service is not even 3% of US GDP payments. Since, as I have already written, despite all your heart fears - we are not threatened by default. As if our congress in their political games did not assure you in the opposite - I am sure you are in my great wisdom, you understand that this is your language - the divorce of suckers and no one will go bankrupt. We will also inform that our main debt is in front of our federal reserve bank and also our Social Insurance Pension Fund, where we borrowed the ECU. These two institutes of American life, our government owed about 60% of all external debt. No, not China and Japan, namely, this is quite American, domestic institutions.

Ask how will we pay for it? And I will tell you! Ready? The debt is not paid - it grows out of it, due to the increase in GDP growth above inflation and the above debt service costs. If at the same time more or less balance the budget, to cut extra expenses, curb the native trade unions and carry out the necessary reforms - then there will be no prices to our legislators. This process is complex and goes slowly. But I will make you up - even with this president of Transzhir, as Obama, the budget deficit by sequestration is already reduced twice. I am confident that if you sit for work and do not polish, but by calculations, work, compromise, the budget is quite realistic to be balanced at zeros. Well, also remove all restrictions on business and its development, reduce corporate taxes up to 25% and can be seen in the figure in 6-7% of annual growth. In this case, you will be reduced to you and even the surplus in the treasury is formed.

12. Collective currency or curse of socialism.

One of the reasons for such a successful and solid position of the dollar is also in the fact that all competitors persistently show their gently say inconsistency or even if everything is completely normal, then failure. There is a good Canadian or Australian dollars, but they can not clean the whole world due to their amount. There is a Swiss franc - a very stable currency, but Switzerland kicks and hands resists the transition to the reserve global currency. It is enough to remember how a couple of years ago, when the dollar fell hard, for solemn toasts in Russia - all rushed to buy Swiss francs. Frank instantly took off up on this speculation, which immediately caused a response from the Swiss government, which began to throw it into the market in additional quantities, not to help buy it, but on the contrary, make it disadvantageous. Since I repeat once again - no one wants a very expensive currency. This is the end of exports. The same demarchai and even complaints were from Brazil and Argentina, when their exports began to fall sharply, since the American dollar fell abruptly and knocked their export stools from under them.

Some of these situations in Russia offer a certain collective pay means - such as the new collective currency whether BRIC countries are the countries of the SCO. In words, everyone agrees. In practice, everyone will torpes this undertaking with any methods. Since it has already been proven that the collective currency is a way to make some work on those who will either relax or steal from the total boiler. The level of corruption of all the above countries is such that the losses will be significant. Well, also knowing the sad details of the euro, where the Germans and the Dutch work in the sweat of the person, and the Greeks and Spaniards squeeze the wine on the beaches and shout everyone together what they are for a single Europe - I think for a long time everyone beat off the desire about the collective payable.

Finally, there is an interesting and almost proven finance theory that any, in fact, the actual, world reserve currency has one serious puncture, which can be corrected only by the fact that this currency will cease to be global and reserve. And this puncture is that such countries will have chronic trade and budget deficit. It will be possible to improve or correct these indicators, but these are subjective corrections. Then how objectively this theory works and shows that this is the main Achilles heel - any global reserve currency. And so knowing about this paradox - no normal statesman today does not river this honorable, but at the same time a terribly problemable place. As they wrote in the same book - the throne of the King of Zvergov was made so uncomfortable and rudely, with zanozami and nails, that all his species and the state did not give it to him or in extreme cases caused a bunch of inconvenience and pain.

And so knowing all this you can understand why there are many conversations and promises. And the result is one - the world almost undivided rules, rules and will rule for a very long time - His Majesty is an American dollar.

In short, do not read Soviet newspapers and sleep quietly. May the strength and American dollar will come with you at the same time.