https: //www.Sype/2017-05-23/politolog_valeriy_Solovey
"Putin may well refuse the following period"
Political analyst Valery Solovy: The political crisis started will last two or three years and will lead to the most serious change.
It is impossible to exclude that Vladimir Putin will eventually decide to avoid a new nomination to the presidency. It is one thing - to lead the country on the rise, and the other - with a downward trend and unclear prospects Nail Fattahov / site
news last days: Rosneft buys wine glasses, tea spoons and cranicians at a price of tens of thousand rubles each - at the same time, according to government forecasts, over the next 20 years, the average salary in the country will grow only half, and the shares of education and health in GDP will be reduced. At the parliamentary hearings on youth policy, the head of the Valery Fedorov, the head of Valery Fedorov assured the deputies that we don't have a revolutionary significant group of youth, which requires change here and now "- while the number of Rosgvardia since its foundation has grown twice. Our regular interlocutor, the famous political scientist Valery Solovey convinced that the authorities really fear the consolidation of protest, but change himself unable to change himself than only closer to his end.
"Elite groupings are very afraid to even think about plot"
- Valery Dmitrievich, recently Zhirinovsky reported that it was possible instead of Putin to presidential elections will be his own gender. Putin himself quite familiar to himself said that there is still no time to talk about participation in the elections. How do you interrupt these statements?
- This is Putin's psychological handwriting: he is in no hurry to publish important decisions by pulling them to the latter. I do not exclude that he gives pleasure to observe how someone runs his surroundings and fuss, trying to try on the Lavra of the successor.
- A few facts published in recent months. According to the FBK "Chef Putin", Prigogin has mastered 180 billion rubles on contracts from the Ministry of Defense. In 2016, 3.7 billion rubles went to the remune of top managers of Rosneft, while the company's debts reached a historical maximum. And the Ministry of Internal Affairs is a special machine with a working office and a double bed for 1.7 billion rubles. Well, the most good example: on the Moscow renovation, the developers plan to "master" 3.5 trillion rubles. And all this, as, according to the information voiced in the State Duma, there are already 23 million poor in the country. What do you think Putin is able to temper the appetites built by them? Will he do to do it if she reserves the president?
- I believe that Putin may well refuse the following period. The answer to it lies in your own question. It is one thing to be the president of the country, which is flourishing thanks to high oil prices, and its population is rich. And even if the president, "twisting nuts" and the restriction of political freedom, do not really like this population, then it still does not enter the streets and is not indignant. Another thing is to be president with a downward economic trend, in a situation of a long-term crisis with a growing embossing of the population and gloomy social prospects.
I will add that in Russia incomes of the population are actually frozen. And, as you understand, it will only aggravate the situation we are discussing. According to the available forecasts, the standard of living of 2013 in Russia will be able to recover by 2023-2024. That is, if Putin goes to the 2018 elections and will be elected, it will only happen by the end of his new presidential term. So in any case, anything good for objective reasons to expect.
Alexey Filippov / RIA Novosti
And there is another factor. It exists, but he is silent. Let's call it a factor x: Putin several times publicly thought out that he would like to move away from affairs, being in a decent form.
Gazeta.Ru: Putin can go to the presidential election as a self-configuration
As for the appetites of his environment, that is, the academic concept of "Putin's system". This system is personalist. Thus, Putin's care will mean the end of this system. That is, all the people who during Putin's reign screamed the fabulous capital (we are not about all top managers, but about the kernel of Putin's environment), they can lose their posts, and their assets. This is an axiom of the crisis of personalist regimes: when the author goes and the guarantor of such a regime, then, accordingly, the key group of the elite carries tangible losses.
- So it is worth expecting fights for assets?
- Not necessary. The beneficiaries of the Putin system feel very well that they need to protect themselves guarantees that would allow to maintain their assets. But nowhere in the world it did not work, and Russia is unlikely to be an exception. In the end, any new power to create a sense of justice in society will have to donate someone. In such cases, choose those who have become very good.
- Perhaps Putin retains exceptional authority and influence due to its foreign policy activity and reputation of one of the leading politicians of the world. How do you assess the reliability of this Putin's asset: it is stable, growing, weakens? Yes, and who, instead of Putin, is able to cut relationships from the United States, Europe, China, the Middle East today?
"It was for a long time, but now the situation changes to the worst. Although Putin remains one of the most influential world leaders, it is simultaneously considered and almost "the most dangerous person in the world." This kind of reputation does not cause the desire to build a long-term relationship, but rather stimulates to confront and isolation " dangerous man" See how the USA together with Saudi Arabia And with the support of Turkey, the actual "Middle Eastern NATO" is actually ". Isn't it clear that our freedom of hand in Syria will now decrease?
And so on all foreign policy azimuths, including the Chinese direction. The United States and China agree among themselves, and Russia's position does not look very strong. With the US, we cannot agree with the USA due to the actual tramia tramp in connection with the "Russian trail" in the US elections. With the European Union, our relations stagnate.
Press Service of the President of the Russian Federation
- Is it possible in perspective, in the event of Putin's indecision, which will break between the thick noise and the beggar, reactionaries and democrats, the "special path" and supporters of Open Russia, the "GKCP version", the state version? What do you think in this case will the army say? What role in the system and what position in relation to reactioners is Sergey Shoigu?
- No plot against Putin is impossible, because all Russian elite groups, even those that relate to it are wary and negatively, are very afraid. Not that to organize a plot, but even think about him. As for Shoigu, it is not necessary to exaggerate the significance of his personality. He is not at all so brutalen as the impression that is trying to produce. In addition, he is unacceptable for the overwhelming majority of the groups of elites.
"Local protests can merge into a nationwide coalition against power"
- According to the Levada Center, corruption in the authorities consider 90% of Russians inadmissible, and almost 70% impose personal responsibility for her on Putin. More than half say they are tired of waiting for change from Putin, first of all in the fight against corruption. At the same time, the president signed the "Law of Timchenko", continues to support discredited Medvedev (45% of citizens speak to one degree or another). If Putin still goes to the elections, is it so much resistant to its electoral positions because of these obvious contradictions between the expectation of voters and its actions?
- those figures that you give, just indicate the moral and psychological fatigue of society. This is a natural position of things. In any country, people get tired of their rulers, even if they are lucky and cute. It is believed that the acceptable term of the country's reign is 9-12 years. After that, fatigue inevitably comes.
As for the electoral positions of Putin, he is still a big support, it is higher than any other potential candidate. Nevertheless, it is not so great as sociological polls declare.The point is not that surveys are shy, but that people do not want to tell the truth, they do not want to express their true opinion to interviewers. They are elementary afraid or give the so-called socially approved answers. Therefore, I would appreciate Putin's support as substantial, but not at all phenomenally high.
Nail Fattahov / site
- You argue that with rallies on March 26, a new political period began. However, if they still take into account the data of the social skins, there are no doubt that, go Putin to the presidential election, he will win them: according to the leadership of the Levada Center at the beginning of May, 48% are ready for Putin for Putin, for Navalny only 1 % at 42% undefined. What is the difference between the past political period from the previous one? What facts talk about differences?
- I assume that the last protest will exacerbate, and this aggravation will be long-term. Accordingly, the election of the president, regardless of whether Putin goes on them or not, can take place in the atmosphere of the political crisis, which will affect not only the course of elections, but also on their outcome. It should not also forget that the elections are only part of the political process and that in addition to them there are other ways to solve political crises and come to power. I regard what is happening in Russia, as the initial phase of the political crisis. It will last a couple of years and can lead to the most serious political change in the country.
- Stripping truckers and rallies March 26 throughout the country, a rally against renovation in Moscow was distinguished by such innovation, as a resignation slogans not only the government, but also the president. On the other hand, polls of the same Levada Center show: Although about half of the respondents believe that a citizen has the right to defend his interests even contrary to the interests of the state - and almost 40% support rallies against corruption, "personally" to show activity "is ready for less than 20%. Are you sure that protest shares can become wider, mass and political presidential elections?
- We are talking about local processes, how, let's say, in Yekaterinburg - conflict around the construction of an on-water church, in St. Petersburg - with Isaac, in Moscow - with renovation. All these protests have a non-political nature, but are projected into politics. I can say for sure that the Kremlin is very afraid of the politicization of these protests due to the fact that their participants are increasingly putting forward political slogans, and therefore these local protests can merge into a national protest and the coalition will arise against power.
I believe that the fears of the Kremlin are founded. It seems to me that in the fall protest can turn into something more large-scale and less controlled.- It can be seen that today the government is trying to "do not play with fire", acts in relation to the opposition, by observing the balance, on the verge, but not crossing it. But how will most likely react power if the protest increase? Also - pointingly arresting activists like Vyacheslav Maltsev and Dmitry Demushkin, increasing control over social networks and the media? Or is it possible to radical "Erdogan version"?
- Russia is a country where it can be tried. But as soon as you try, then you will understand that the rusty nuts are frozen, and the whole design will start. In Russia, it is now very dangerous to resort to excess pressure. Since the reaction of society may be unpredictable, for example, it will have strong resistance. And it seems that power feels.
And it is also necessary to take into account that power cannot be confident in the loyalty of the police and Rosgvardia. The police are the same citizens as we who are experiencing the same social and material problems, difficulties and deprivation. Please note: What did the Ombudsman for Human Rights come true? Enhance salaries by police!
There is a feeling that the police are hidden disloyal. As far as is known, according to the results of March 26, the Moscow police officer was arranged "parsing of flights", where one of the leaders of the Moscow police shouted on their subordinates, accusing them in the fact that they were leaning and did not want to work. This does not mean that the police openly oppose the power. For Russia, a favorite method of protest is sabotage. And if the police begin to sabotage orders, then it is very dangerous for the system.
Vladimir Fedorenko / RIA Novosti
- But on the other hand, the police detained participants in rallies on March 26, applying violence, the detainees complained about the threats. In Birobijan, Rosgvardia attacked the workers. After March 26, the police were supported by Volodin and Fedotov (LTF), and United States in the State Duma even offered to allow her to shoot along the crowd. The verdict Yury Kulia is also a clear curtsy toward the police. It seems that the security officials are preparing for the "Erdogan version" in the case of which, and they, in general, are not off.
- It depends on the region. The further you are from the information flows, the easier it is to resort to violence. It depends on the scale. It's one thing when you are insulating several dozen people, the other - when it is encountered with a crowd of 50-70 thousand, and suddenly she begins to behave hard. I do not say "aggressively", but rigidly, for example, to protect those whom the police snatch from the crowd and drags into a car facility.
- Matvienko called on the "Article Dadin", to analyze the validity of the tariffs in the Plato system and in general "not to hide the head under the wing." Leaders of the parliamentary opposition after rallies on March 26 demanded to release schoolchildren and students, to investigate the facts set forth in the film FBK "He's not Dimon", and the use of the force of the police against the rally. United Russia Revenko declared in the State Duma that attacks, arson and dilapidation of the Zelenkaya - not the means of political struggle, but a crime, pulling the Constitution. How influential these "humanistic" forces?
- About any humanism does not matter. This is nothing more than a manifestation of common sense, which the Russian elite is not deprived. But the policy as a whole will not affect. The policy will remain the same because it has the former group of beneficiaries. This is their way to keep your position. They are afraid of any change and want to keep the status quo. There is such a universal rule: as soon as you start to demonstrate softness - it increases the ambitions of the opposition. Therefore, we will not see anything like that.
- Despite the active application of the 282th article against the "incitement of hatred", in our society, there is still an obvious split in our society: some are supported by Navalny, others call him supporters of the Liberal-Fascists and "traitors; Some protect Isaac from the ROC - others taller for the transfer of the Cathedral of the Church; In post-industrial cities to gays include tolerant or indifferent - they are taken out of archaic Chechnya due to the threat of persecution, and the murders, and so on. At the same time, according to Rosgvardia, 4.5 million Russians are in hand 7.5 million weapons. And if this weapon (not only Zelenk) goes into the course of the opposition of Russians with each other or with the authorities?
- First, the 282nd article is insane. Such an article should not be in the Criminal Code. Secondly, in Russia, despite the high level of neurotic and psychopathization, we still do not enter each other in the throat. And thirdly, the power is most afraid that possible aggression is not implemented against each other, but will find a general vector and will head against power.
And most importantly - the fourth: to get rid of this tension, society needs to offer the future. The government is not able to do this now. Society needs a social and historical perspective. And he says to him, firstly, about the past: our grandfathers won on May 9! And this is the main source of legitimation of power along with Crimea. And secondly, she says: if you protest, it will become like in Ukraine. So, appeals to the past and Ukraine no longer work.
People want to have the future that power is not able to offer them. Moreover, this applies not only to society, but also to the elite too.The elite does not have an understanding of the goals and objectives of the country, which causes her confusion and disorientation.
Press Service of the President of the Russian Federation
- And yet the civil war is possible? Or is it an exaggeration?
- This is an horror service that power successfully uses in advantage purposes. Even with high conflict in society, civil war is absolutely excluded. There may be some separate excesses, but not a civil war. There are no fundamental factors for it.
"We are in the same position that at the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet Union"
- A few questions to you as a teacher. A distinctive feature of rallies on March 26 was the participation of schoolchildren and students. Suffice to say that 7% of detainees are minors. Recently, Tomsk schoolboy recorded a video message to Medvedev with demands directly to accusing corruption and resign. And in Kaluga high school students held a rally against corruption in education. Is it worth allowing minors to participate in political promotions, especially since they often end up violence?
- Can we prevent minors to participate in these promotions? Honestly, no. I can judge my 15-year-old son. If you put pressure on them, they will rather go to these protest actions from a feeling of protest against pressure. And personally, for me, the choice in this case will disappear: as a normal father I will be forced to go along with my son. I think many parents are such a choice and will do.
It is important to understand that the speech of young people is actually a reflection of those conversations that they hear from the elders. These are the political socialization they pass at home. Only their parents only talk about it, and children, due to high energy and a sharpened sense of justice, go to the streets. This children's protest is associated with changing mass moods. Children shine reflected by parents. Therefore, it makes no sense to separate the teenage protest from the overall state of society.
Yaromir Romanov / Website
- The study of HSE shows: at least 66% of students call corruption to the main science of the country and do not trust the entire "vertical of power" - from the government to local officials and policemen, 47% will vote for Putin, for Navalny only 7%, and in protest's promotions are ready to participate Only 14%. Is it really possible to talk about the coming "revolution of the boy-kibalchysh", with whom it is even not clear how to deal?
- First, Putin, even at the likely overestimation of his rating, remains the most popular politician of Russia. Secondly, the Navalny far from the most recognizable politician of Russia. Thirdly, I doubt that students in surveys speak the truth. I assume that many of them, like adults, are shy. And fourth, as I said, there are such ways out of the crisis, when the ratio of most and minority does not matter. Then the other thing is important.
It is important not "for whom you intend to vote," and "are you ready to go to the square at the appointed hour."- The Minister of Education Vasilyeva expressed that it was necessary to work with the "protest" youth. Examples of teachers who broke schoolchildren and students for sympathy for Navalny, threatening them (for some reason, the Vladimir region was especially distinguished here), the position of the Ministry of Education The teachers have learned to speak with students, that between them is the value generation of the abyss. How, according to your teaching opinion, you need to "work" with young people and will our education work?
- I can say for sure that the current system of education does not work with this youth. All talks about politics on the part of teachers are meaningless, they are rejected by schoolchildren and lead to just opposite results. Therefore, I think, will try to resort to the administrative pressure and control system.
Economist Vladislav Inozemtsov about when and how Russia will be able to build democracy
And if the Minister of Education and I want to influence schoolchildren, then it is not necessary to work with children, but with parents, try to convince them that the participation of children in political processes threatens their health and prospects. In some cases, this may give the result, but only in some. It would be better if representatives of the education system were generally silent, so at least they did not attract attention to what is happening.
- In your opinion, the current youth is at all interested in politics? Do they want to become politicians or politician analysts, political scientists, political technologists? Or is it just a youthful maximalism, which is not viewed by the prospect of professional participation in politics?
- Teenage riot is associated with acute awareness of injustice. Children feel that neither the country nor them personally have no future. And for them it is intolerant. If, let's say, our generation has already adapted to what is happening, preferring to tolerate and taper, then they begin to protest. This means that the policy is more likely a situational phenomenon. They do not see other channels to implement their ambitions and aspirations.
Site Alexey Navalny
If an image of the future appears, then the policy, as always, will remain a minority lot. It is 3-5% of all youth. Now we see that the interest in politics has grown. And so far, the causes of the protest will not disappear, the youth will be involved in politics.
- And specifically political science, the study of politics is interesting for young people?
- Of course, there is a small percentage to which political science is interesting. But when you get acquainted with how a policy is arranged in Russia, then you understand that you are not able to influence it. You need to change the policy framework, and for this it is not at all necessary to have a political formation. To do this, you need to possess other qualities. Therefore, political science is impaired. If there is actually no competitive policy in Russia, the political science, which is built on Western political principles and models, loses its meaning. It turns out art for the sake of art, research for the sake of research, theory for theories for theories.
- That is, you would not advise your son, nephews and other familiar young people to communicate with political scientists as, in fact, with a low-oily and cut off from the practice of discipline?
- This is not a path to practical policy. It is just an interesting intellectual activity that has nothing to do with real politics. And I can say that most academic political scientists (although not all) do not understand at all what is happening in Russia. They are not even able to analyze the current policies, not that offer some tips, consultations, solutions.
- And last, Valery Dmitrievich. What period of history can you compare the moment we are in?
- Since 1917, it is not necessary to compare definitely. The best analogy since 1989-1991, when the collapse of the Soviet Union began. General in the then and today - the dysfunctionality of the system. She stopped satisfying the requests of the majority. The control apparatus is ineffective. Political recovery can go into a political crisis. The economy is largely similar in terms of oil dependence. In foreign policy - again aggravation with the West. Then we had Afghanistan, now Syria and Donbass. Navalny found himself in the role of the then Yeltsin: everything that power does against him, only turns around to be good for him.
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Political analyst, doctor of historical sciences, professor of advertising and public relations department MGIMO Valery Solovey Posted on his Facebook page, which is fired from the university for political reasons: " Personal and public. Today I filed a statement about the care of myself from MGIMO, where I worked for 11 years. For political reasons, the institute no longer wants to have any cases with me. I am understanding about this reluctance. And I will be grateful if it will continue to be in no way to associate with MGIMO ... about my plans. In the near future, by order of a very large European publishing house, I will begin to write a book, the topic of which is modestly silent. The teaching is no longer returning to teaching. Russia enters into the era of steep changes, and I intend to take in them the most lively participation. Stay Tued.".
Friends and colleagues broke out by supporting support. Head of the Party Changes Dmitry Gudkov: " I wish you good luck and condolences to students!". Mature Observer" Echo Moscow "Ksenia Larina:" It should have happened, you knew. And I am sure that you have no doubt about the choice of way". Bibleist-modernist Andrei Desnaitsky:" Andrey Zubov. (The infamous professor-Vlasovets - approx.) i stopped to be needed MGIMO five years ago, Valery Solovyi is just now. Looking at the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, you understand: and the truth, why are they there?". Former member of the Central Council of the DPNNI * (subsequently - Liberal, Haters of" Vatanov "and the Russian world) Alexey" Eer "Mikhailov:" Milestone yes. I wish you success and development, further creative and political self-realization! Well, "Stay with us")))"Israeli ultrasionist Avigdor Eskin:" It takes off. Through how many years at the head of MGIMO will we see Professor Nightingale? 3 years later? After 5 years?". Actress Oppositioning Elena Korenev:" Pretty. We will wait for the book!". Poetess and movement coordinator" Republican alternative "Alina Vitukhnovskaya:" Good luck!".
"Valeria Dmitrievich ended the contract, and he accepted this independent decision - to leave at his own request. What political reasons are in mind - it makes sense to clarify"- explained RBC in the press service of MGIMO. Solovy himself declared the Russian BBC service that the university" has the most direct relationship"To his dismissal, while it was given to understand that the wish to stop cooperation comes" from a certain external": "It was said that in political reasons, the Institute considers extremely undesirable so that I worked in it. In particular, I was accused of being subversive, I am engaged in anti-state propaganda. This type of wording makes you remember the Soviet past". In a conversation with" MK ", he noticed that he had" a new, very important stage in life begins.".
Is there an accusation of anti-state activities on empty? What is the "era of steep change", said soot? Her beginning, he considers the events around the "Golunow Business". A couple of days ago, in an interview with the opposition portal "Moscow activist", Professor said: " Deserve all sorts, from my point of view, respect for those people who were still on the streets on June 12. What we now observe is the formation of mass new rights. This is partly similar to what happened in 2011, well, 2012 we will not take, there the dynamics have already been high. All the same, a considerable group of people is ready to go out, despite the fact that the dynamics for it are trying to enjoy, despite the fact that they put pressure on these people. That is, society changes literally in front of her eyes. The readiness for mobilization is much larger than half a year ago. Much more. It will increase. But in order for this readiness into something effective, it is necessary to practice, that is, go out. Willingness to risk will grow when people see something new. As soon as we feel that we are several tens of thousands, moreover, when these few tens of thousands behave a little more organized, and there is a chance of this, that is, there will be some kind of organizing principle, the behavior of these people will be different. Not immediately, but gradually, such three-four mass shares will be required, so that people start themselves otherwise lead, and the working side is to be afraid to be afraid of them. I say this is quite thorough: the police, riot police in Moscow not much. In reality, they are not much, you know? And as soon as 25-30 thousand people are coming to the streets, who are ready to resist who have some kind of organizing principle, the situation will change ... Already next year, not in the first half, but in the second, closer to the end, we We will see that the regional authorities will be addicted to local protesters in order to put pressure on Moscow in such a way. Here is what we watched at the turn of the eighties-nineties, in 1991 exactly exactly. And this practice that will repeat, nothing will be in this personally for me, unexpected. All things have once ever happened. Just the story reached their second time. We are now figuratively at the end of 1989. Feeling". About the same nightingale in recent public debates, initiated by Libertarian Mikhail Light:" Now much began to change. Even the broken-interrupted people from the opposition felt another in the air. In the fall, you will see this when a group of people will appear who are ready to do something, and it will turn to all. Because it is clear what to do, how to do what to say, what to demand. For the first time since 2012, and even for the first time since 1990 there was a desire to change, which was not 30 years old, and a readiness appeared something for the sake of these changes to donate. Society in Russia is more and more ready for violence".
He predicts the revolution, thirsty " fire"which will lead to" redeezing Russia". It does not suit him at all, first of all," aggressive foreign policy". Apparently, the nightingale intends to offer his own candidacy for the role of" organizing the starts "of the Russian Maidan. But still the Silovikov is afraid:" I assure you that there are "enthusiasts", calling for more hard and more massive measures. They are preparing for this. Lists of those who need to enter into custody without charges, they were ready for 2012. And replenished. There are about 1.5-2 thousand people in Moscow. It is believed that if these people are inhibited, then any political movement will be delayed. And these "enthusiasts" complain that there is no rigid line. Putin, if you want, actually holds back. I'm not at all illuminating. There are people who are ready to act more decisively and hard.".
It is worth reminding the main milestones of the biography of Valeria Dmitrievich. He was born 19.08.1960 in the city of the happiness of the Voroshilovgrad region of the Ukrainian SSR, the children's years spent in Western Ukraine. He graduated from East of MSU. M. V. Lomonosov, in 1983-93 he was a graduate student and an employee of the Institute of History of the USSR of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, in perestroika, defended his thesis on the topic "The role of the Red Professors Institute in the formation of the Soviet historical science and the development of the problems of domestic history." Since 1993, he worked as one of the leading experts of Gorbachev-Fund. Prepared several reports for international organizations. Increased internships in the London School of Economics and Political Sciences, worked there by an invited researcher.
In 2005, he defended his doctoral dissertation on the topic "Russian Question" and his influence on the internal and foreign policy of Russia (the beginning of the XVIII - the beginning of the XXI centuries) "and began to improve contacts with part of the nationalists, claiming the status of the ideologist of the Nationality, Anti-Experience " progressive, Democratic National Liberalism without anti-Semitism and Orthodoxy". Seriously became close to the DPNI * Alexander Belova / Potkin and the Russian public movement of Konstantin Krylov. It was noticed on" Russian marchs "and other events, despite the dissatisfaction of a number of nationalists with influence" jew from Gorbachev-Fund".
Since 2007, he worked at the Department of Advertising and Public Relations of the MGIMO Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation (led courses "PR and advertising in politics", "Basics of Information War and Mediampauling", "Basics of State Policy in the Information Sphere"). Permanent, wanted guest "Echo Moscow", "Radio Liberty", "Rain" and other hostile sites.
Valery Nightingale on Russian Marsh: 
Actively participated in the "marsh" events; There are rumors that I urged the most frostbitten busts to go to the storming of the State Duma. Then he wrote on the APN website: " In Russia, the revolution began ... As the world experience shows, for the victory of the revolution, three conditions are needed. First, the high moral spirit of revolutionaries and the progressive weakening of the ability of power to resist revolutionary onslaught. We are already observed. The dynamics of mass protest in Moscow and in other cities increases, while the moral spirit and the physical condition of the police and the riot of riots deteriorate. A few days later the police refuse to fulfill orders simply because she would not have physical forces. At the same time, violence against revolutionaries is drawn into mass actions of new people and increases protest. Even the arrest of a number of street leaders is not able to reduce the heat of movement. Exactly the opposite, the violence emanating from the morally of the illegitimate power only enhances the will to victory. The second condition of the victory of the revolution is the union of part of the elite with the rebel people. Elite in confusion. Some of her groups are ready to stretch the hand of the revolution, but fear to make an invalious move. However, the first swallow appeared. The State Duma deputy, the deputy chairman of the Security Committee, Gennady Gudkov, not only openly solidized with the rebel people, but also accepted the most active part in the protest action on December 6th. This is not only a courageous, but also a wise step. The printed press is already on the side of the revolution. Soon the revolution conspires and official television channels: first neutral, and then sympathy. And it will become a sign that the elite turned away from the "National Leader" hated by her. Third condition and, at the same time, the culmination of the revolution is a symbolic gesture that marks her victory. As a rule, this is the capture of some building associated with the previous mode. In France, there was an assault of Bastille, in Russia of October 1917 - Taking the Winter". As we know, the Belolant Revolution did not happen.
In January 2012, the nightingale headed working Group On the creation of the opposition nationalist party "New Power" (evil tongues spoke about 2 million dollars, received from the powerful five-colonnikov on the formation of such a structure), 6.10.2012 was elected chairman at the constituent congress. Many prominent members of the "New Force" soon went to Ukraine for the sake of participation in Euromaidan and the Genocide of the Russian population; Let's call the head of the Belgorod branch of the National Assembly Roman Strigunkova (Adolf Hitler's fan andex-blogger with nickname Hitlerolog, leader of the dwarf regional Russian national-socialist movement, the leader of the Russian Legion in Kiev "Euromaidan"), Deputy Chairman of the Murmansk branch of the National Assembly of Alexander "Pomor-88" Vova (who has passed from the Murmansk Hitleburg skin-party to the punitive battalion "Azov" **) or, for example, an Activist of the National Assembly, the former film actor Anatoly Pashinin (as a result, called for terrorist attacks in the territory of the Russian Federation and entered In the 8th separate battalion "Aratta" of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army ** Dmitry Yarosh), enthusiastically declared: " Valery Solovey is the chairman of our party "New Power". I listened to his interview, I am proud of it, read all his work!"In March 2016, Nightingale told reporters that the party" frozen due to the fact that we were threatened by repression".
Valery Solovey at the congress of "new power":
Valery Solovy and Roman Streamkov:
November 29, 2017 he entered pre-election headquarters Candidate for the post of president of the Russian Federation, business ombudsman, the leader of the Pravoliberal Growth of Boris Titov. He oversleep in this headquarters, performed the functions of a key political technologist. He was a trustee of Titov, represented him on election debates.
The author of the book "RUSSIAN HISTORY: new reading", "meaning, logic and form of Russian revolutions", "Blood and soil of Russian history", "failed revolution. The historical meanings of Russian nationalism" (the co-author of Tatyana Solovyi spoke), "Absolute Weapon. Basics Psychological War and Mediamanipulating "," Revolution! Basics of the revolutionary struggle in modern era, "more than two thousand newsstands and online publications.
From an interview with the Liberal portal Znak.com (March 2016):
""Overtono Window" is a propaganda myth. And this concept itself is conspiracy: they say, there is a group of people who plan to develop a strategy for decades to corrupt society. Never anywhere in history did not have anything like that. All changes in the history of mankind occur spontaneously. This does not mean that they certainly have some conspiracy ... Yes, what was Antinorm 100-200 years ago, today suddenly becomes acceptable. But this is a natural process, you do not need to see the "shaggy lapse of Antichrist", which came to this world to arrange Armageddon through homosexual marriages or something else ... I believe that the division of Russia and Ukraine was a natural process. He began not two years ago, and in the early 1990s. And then, many analysts said that Ukraine will inevitably be drifting towards the West. I repeat, this is quite a natural process. And after the joining of Crimea to Russia, the war in the Donbass, the point of no return is passed. Now Ukraine will never definitely never be with Russia a fraternal state. Anti-Moskovskiy and anti-Russian moods will now be a cornerstone for the formation of the national identity of Ukrainians. Here the question can be closed ... Donbass, with any situation, is doomed to be "black hole" on the geopolitical card. It will be a region where crime, corruption, economic decline - some European Somalia will reign. There is no point in modernizing something there, because the Donbass is not particularly needed by anyone ... Russia is never to be an empire. It was understandable even in the 1990s".
* Recognized as extremist and prohibited in the territory of the Russian Federation
** Terrorist group prohibited in Russia
In the "liberal" party (in order to avoid misunderstandings, it should be noted that this community has the same relation to liberalism as a business project J. Under the name of the LDPR), a new idol appeared - the former communion of public relations MGIMO Valery Solovy. His insights from the "Corridors of the Kremlin Power" made it a welcome guest on the "Echo of Moscow", "Rain", RBC, republic.ru and other media, the constant presence in which and forms a community "Liberal" parties, and the fiery criticism of power and decisive predictions Valery Dmitrievich was produced in the rank of Guru. A recent departure from MGIMO, which, according to the professor himself, occurred as a result of "political pressure" created a halo spent around him and gave a chance to the transition from the status of Guru to the rank of civil and political leader. Than Valery Solovyi did not fail to use, declaring the formation of a certain "civil coalition".
And nothing, but whenever Valery Dmitrievich pronounced his rebellious speeches, smithereens of the spread of the Kremlin from liberal positions, some bad people sent a video from his performance in the program of Vladimir Solovyov "Fight", in which Professor spoke in the team Zyuganov and Protected Stalin from "Liberasta" Gozman.
In this speech, Valery Dmitrievich explained Leonid Yakovlevich that they live with him "in different countries"Because," in the country, the Lord Gozmanov is made to spit on fraternal graves. " In addition, Professor Solovyov told that "the consequences of liberal reforms that occurred in the 90s in their losses are comparable to what happened in the 30s and what is attributed to Stalin."
In this two-minute fragment of his speech, Valery Dmitrievich joined so many markers characterizing his political and human face, which is somehow even embarrassing them to decipher and comment. "Lord Gozmans", "spitting on fraternal graves" ... "Losses from liberal reforms of the 90s are comparable with losses of the 30s" ... Put the nightingale cave Stalinist Starinists or Prokhanov in place and you will hear exactly the same rhetoric.
Last week, Solovy, speaking on "Ah", decided to explain, after which they had an exchange with Leonid Gozman open letters. At first, Valery Solovey explained that all sorts of discussions about Stalin are for the benefit of the Kremlin, as they form a "false agenda": "It is useful to realize that the exalted discussions about Stalin the essence of the classical manipulation of the agenda by the authorities: the discussion about the present is replaced by the discussion about the past, which It does not have a real relationship. " End of quotes.
For a reasonable question of the lead, why he himself took part in the creation of a "false agenda", participating in this discussion about Stalin, the nightingale with a disarming smile answered: "The man is weak and vain." When the presenter began to be stated, why the nightingaws, criticizing the power from liberal positions today, took part in the discussion on the side of Zyuganov, defending Stalin, Valery Dmitrievich first tried to take advantage, they say, he "did not defend" nor Zyuganov nor Stalin, and then, Apparently, realizing the absurdity of the denial of obvious, referred to the "evolution of views."
At the "Evolution of Views" Professor Solovna should be partitioned. During the period of the memorable speech on the side of Zyuganov and in defense of Stalin, Valery Dmitrievich tried ideologically to head the Russian nationalists, created the nationalist party "New Power" for this purpose, and became its chairman. In those days, this period of 2011 - 2013, Valery Solovyi performed mainly from the Tribune of Nationalist and Stalinist Media in the company with such people as Vitaly Tretyakov, Alexander Dugin, Mikhail Dlyagin, etc. Evolution and even the revolutionary look of views is quite normal, the whole question is when and under the influence of what reasons it happens.
In the late 80s - the beginning of the 90s, the views of many people changed under the influence of a huge amount new information, Including about the past of our country. In 2013, the nightingale performs on the side of Zyuganov and protects Stalin from Liberas and Gozmanov. And in 2017 enters the constituent headquarters of the candidate of Titov as a curator of ideology and declares that it will be the ideology of "right liberalism". It is difficult to assume that in the interval between 2013 and 2017, Valery Dmitrievich learned something new on Stalinism or Liberalism. The reason for the "evolution of views" of Professor Solovna is about the same that during the years of Soviet power, forced such as he hesitated along with the line of the party, and after the collapse of the USSR, there were former scientific atheism professionals to stand in the church with candles.
Professor Navalov headed the Department of Public Relations to the MGIMO Department of Public Relations, that is, he is a PR specialist. In this profession there are its own rules, most importantly of which is the priority of the interests of the customer. Valery Dmitrievich defeated the position of Zyuganov and Stalin to defend the position of Stalin from victory about the "inseparalness". Got an order for the creation of a nationalist party - justify the priority of the Russian people and the harmfulness of "Gozmans". We instructed to oversee the ideology for the "Growth Party" Boris Titov, Professor Solovyi will hit Semen and VMIG will turn into the right liberal, defending the freedom of small businesses and delight the competitive economy.
There is no goggling at Professor, and their "evolution" depends solely on the change of conjuncture. And further. Regarding insides and forecasts of Professor Nightingale. On the "Russian Platform" site, where Valery Solovey regularly performed with the nationalists Egor Kholmogorov, Konstantin Krylov and his student, Vladimir Toron, 8.05.2012 his article was published under the name "Bloody Sunday Vladimir Putin", in which Professor Solovy prophesies: " Putin does not reach the end of his presidential term. Now it is obvious. " Further, Professor Nightingale indicates the specific term of the death of Putin's regime - about six months. "Very soon we will see thousands of tens of thousands, crushing police cordons on their way," a rebellious professor broadcasts.
All this, according to Professor Solovna, should happen in many months. "In the autumn of this year - a new rise!" - predicts Professor Nightingale. I remind you that it was in May 2012. She passed 7 (seven) years. Putin is still in the Kremlin, and Professor Nightingale today, Vangugets, as if nothing has happened: "In 2020, Russia is waiting for the revolution, the national crisis and change of regime. Putin does not reach the end of his presidential term. "
I know a lot of opponents of Putin's regime, which are trying to see in the country and in power some signs of the approaching end of this new type fascism, and from impatience there are similar forecasts, whenever erroneous. But Professor Nautyov is a different case. Public Relations Specialist should emit optimism in communicating with the customer. Yesterday, Professor Solovey served the Stalinists and Nationalists and "did it beautifully." Today, he serves the "liberal" party and "doing beautifully" to her.
"Liberal" Tusovka and led by the liberal community of Russia, like the flock of the Baranov, it comes to the "goats-provocateurs" released from the Kremlin. Whether "Kashin-Guru", or Ksenia Sobchak, or Belkovsky with Pavlovsky, or Prokhorov with a sister, or even Medvedev with freedom, which is "better than non-free." According to the latest research, aquarium fish are not so bad memory so that they can be compared with people all the time performing the same errors. So for Russian liberals will have to select other analogies ...
https: //www.Syt/2016-03-25/politolog_valeriy_Solovey_My_pered_Ochen_Sereznymi_Politicheskimi_Peremenami.
"After the elections, serious restrictions on the departure of citizens from the country will be introduced.
Political analyst Valery Solovy: We are before very serious political change
Historian, political analyst, Publicist Valery Solovey released a new book - "Absolute Weapon. Fundamentals of psychological war and mediamanipulation. " Why are Russians so easy to propaganda processing and how to "decode" them? How, based on this, will the inner political processes develop in the near future? What, most likely, will the outcome of elections? Do our connections change with the outside world?
"In the manipulation of the consciousness of Western democracies, the Nazis and the advice went in one way"
- Valery Dmitrievich, readers are interested in why you wrote another book on the issue, which is already considered dozens of other authors? For example, at one time the book of Sergey Kara-Murza "Manipulation of Consciousness" was popular. What errors and flaws do you see in it?
- There is not one in Russia decent bookthat would tell about propaganda and mediamanipulation. None - emphasize! The famous book of Kara-Murza became so popular only because it was the first in Russia on this topic. But according to its methodological basis, it is frankly fine. Further, my book for the first time in the literature connects Cognitive psychology with long-known plots about methods, admission and propaganda techniques. So far in the literature on this topic there was no such analysis and generalization. Meanwhile, Cognitivistic psychology is extremely important, since explains why people are supporting propaganda and why propaganda is inevitable. While there is humanity, there will be propaganda. And finally, it must be said that I covered the topic of propaganda on topical examples that readers are clearly understood. As a result, a book was turned out, which was noted by the leaders of the Russian propaganda car. As my acquaintances were handed me, they said about her: "The only standing book In Russian on this topic. " True, they added: "But it would be better if such a book did not leave at all." I believe that this is a very high assessment. In addition, the first circulation turned out to be distilled in three weeks. Now the second goes. Here is my answer, why I wrote this book.
Valery Solovy: "The first thing you pay attention to - hair. If the man is bald - on the eyes. The man needs to take care so that he has good teeth and shoes " from the personal archive Valery Solovya
- You somehow said that the concept of the Overton window, which came from the West, revealing the secret mechanisms of loosening public norms, no more than pseudowardy. Why?
- "Overtono Window" is a propaganda myth. And this concept itself is conspiracy: they say, there is a group of people who plan to develop a strategy for decades to corrupt society. Never anywhere in history did not have anything like that and could not be due to the imperfection of human nature. I offer a person who adheres to the concept of "Overton" windows, to plan his life at least for a month and live so, according to its plan. Let's see what happens. Love for this kind of conspiracy is characteristic of those who are not able to manage even their own lives, not to mention that in general to manage anything.
- In our country, Overtonon window remembers when they indicate problems with morality. Patriarch Kirill said: "Pedophilia will legalized for homosexuality."
- All changes in the history of mankind occur spontaneously. This does not mean that they certainly have some conspiracy and legalization of homosexual marriages in some European countries will certainly lead to the legalization of pedophilia. In addition, in one case, we are talking about adults who do something voluntarily, and in a friend of minors who have parents, and the legalization of pedophilia is possible only through violation of human rights and violence. Therefore, yes, what was Antinorm 100-200 years ago, today suddenly becomes acceptable. But this is a natural process, you do not need to see the "shaggy paw of Antichrist", which came to this world to arrange Armageddon through homosexual marriages or something else.
At the same time, I want to say that the reaction may occur in the same way. I do not exclude the fact that the European society can rush back to conservative values. And not because a group of conspirators or agents of the Kremlin will act somewhere in Europe, and simply a society will decide that enough, played out, you need to think about self-preservation.
"The leaders of the Russian propaganda car said:" The only standing book in Russian on this topic. But it would be better if she did not leave "" Pycode.Ru
- Speaking about the manipulation of consciousness in our country, from which historical period you can keep them? Since the time of the Bolsheviks or even earlier?
- If we talk at all about manipulation - then from the moment people learned to speak. But if we are talking about the mass manipulation - then from the moment the mass communication channels appeared. The starting point of mass deception can be considered the appearance of funds mass media. This is natural newspapers, radio, television. And in this sense, all the more or less developed countries went on one way, that Western democracies - the United States, the United Kingdom and so on that Nazi Germany, that Soviet Russia. Propaganda occurs in all countries without exception.
Another thing is the quality of propaganda, sophistication, the presence of pluralism. In the same United States there are media holdings belonging to various independent owners. Therefore, different propaganda campaigns balance each other and during the electoral "marathons" of citizens have freedom of choice. Well, or the illusion of freedom of choice. That is, where there is pluralism, propaganda is always thinner and sophisticated.
- In one of the interviews, you said that BBC is one of the most objective English-speaking television companies. Do you still think so?
- This company confirms such a reputation with his many years of work. All television companies admit punctures, they all are somehow dependent, but BBC suffers from this less.
"Russia managed to create the best propaganda car"
- Do we have propaganda more concerns and stupid?
- I would not say that. Russia managed to create, of course, the best propaganda car. But it is focused solely on its own population, since propaganda was not very successful. At least in the European Area. Our propaganda is engaged in very professional people. These people, in particular, have learned the lesson from the 2008 summer failure. Remember the war for South Ossetia, which Russia won in militarily, but, by general, lost information and propaganda? Since 2014, we have seen that 2008 propaganda errors are no longer.
But it is necessary to understand that any propaganda has its limits. Russian propaganda rested at its limits at the turn of 2015-16. And we will gradually observe her fading. Or, as they often say today, the refrigerator will gradually begin to win the TV. I think that at the turn of 2016-17 her strength will quite seriously weaken.
- Today's diligent resuscitation of the village of Stalin, for example, the doubts ...
- You do not need to fight it. This collapses in itself as soon as the regime will weaken. Stalin in the current realities is nothing more than a propaganda symbol that has no real content and materializing force. Those who urge to return Stalin believe that he should return only to their neighbors, but not for them. When it takes about the skin interests, none of these cries of the Stalinists are not ready to donate. So Stalin's cult is a fiction. Just power exploits Stalin's era to legitimize some of its repressive events. But not more. There is a rule of complex social systems. It says that refund to the past, whoever wanted is impossible.
RIA Novosti / Evgeny Biyatov
"But to Stalin, like enchanted, with flowers go" and old, and young. " Can you talk about the methods of decoding personal and public consciousness?
- Include common sense, judge about people for their affairs, read more, TV or do not look at all or no more than 20 minutes a day. If you are called to vote for a party that promised something 5-10 years ago and didn't do anything to this time, I did not vote for her. Cases speak for themselves.
- And then, in the future, you need to afford the staff of the propaganda media? What they do is crimes? Are they obliged to incur liability?
- It is known that the Nuremberg process equated propaganda to a crime against humanity. Therefore, in some sense, this question can be answered in the affirmative. As for the lustration, I do not exclude it, but whom it will touch it, it is too early to talk.
"Mass will come out, but the state will not lead to the civil war and the decay of the state."
- This year, for the first time in a long time, the election of half the State Duma will be held in single-member districts. It can be expected that the election campaign will become more diverse, and new faces will come in the Duma, they will revive it, will make a "place for discussions"?
- despite the fact that they returned one-member districtsI believe that all the most dangerous for the safety of the regime to the elections will simply not allow. At the stage of registration, candidates pass through the "sieve", which allows you to cut off the disloyal regime. And even if someone from unwanted to elections, they will experience the hardest pressure and will regret that they went. The elections will create the impression of competition, but not the competition itself, the message will have one thing, just the stylistics of different. Therefore, the Duma itself will generally retain decorative character.
RIA Novosti / Alexander Utkin
- Do you see in the country in principle any real opposition to the regime capable of leading the people?
- Russia has that opposition, which the mode allows you to exist. Because any real opposition is destroyed by them in the literal and figurative sense. But even a weak opposition is afraid.
- In this case, the reader asks a question as you, a media exchange specialist, evaluate the chances of Putin's leadership to issue and legitimize the transformation of Russia into half-closed, anti-democratic autocratic in the type of Central Asian countries in the eyes of the population?
- Indeed, today the ruled grouping in Russia is concerned about how to maintain their domination until 2035-40. At least, I had to hear reasoning to this expense from people close to the so-called "elite". But I suppose that in the next couple of years we will see the limit of the capabilities of this regime. I agree, his representatives will try to legitimize their power. But, anyway, the possibilities for this will soon end.
- What about "physical" events, such as the closure of borders?
- After the elections to the State Duma this year, serious restrictions on the departure of Russian citizens from the country will certainly be introduced.
- Do you mean the Law on Outbound Visas?
- No, it is unlikely. Sustainable recommendations will be given to officials of all levels and their families do not leave the country's territory. And if officials will so seriously sprink down, they will not suffer that in the country some part of society remained free. In Russia, if the serfdom is introduced, this applies to all classes. This is a historical tradition. According to my data, tourist tax will be introduced, which for very many categories of citizens will cut off the opportunity to leave abroad.
fastPic.ru.
- Will this be a factor that, on the contrary, will bring the collapse of the regime? After all, this step will affect not only "Creacli", but also the inhabitants who previously allowed themselves to relatively small money to rest in decent hotels in Turkey, Egypt, Greece, Tunisia and so on.
- You are right, regimes are not treated because the opposition and external enemies undermined. They swear due to the stupidity of the managers. And sooner or later, these nonsense begin to acquire a malignant character. If you look at the history of fallen regimes, then the impression arises that those who ruled them, as if deliberately carried out to the crash. In general, regarding any political processes in Russia there are axioms that the dynamics of the masses are unpredictable. And you will never be able to know what, it seems to be minor, things can lead to serious political shifts.
"Another reader's question is appreciated here:" What scenario is most possible in Russia? The first - the president becomes Shoigu (or another conservative), there is a tightening of punisfactory measures, that is, the transition to the USSR No. 2. The second is the "Libyan Scenario." The third is the script of the Rose Revolution. The fourth is a peaceful evolution to European democracy. Or the fifth - the collapse of the Russian Federation into many small states as a result of the current colonial pseudo-addratent system? "
- What I definitely do not expect, so this is the collapse of Russia. When I say that, I clearly understand that it is clean water trading in fear. I believe that Russia is facing very serious political changes. They will not happen in such a distant medium term and will change our political landscape beyond recognition. These changes will be mainly peaceful. And then we will move not very clear where. It will depend on the outcome of change.
- In the early 1990s, the mass was also quite peacefully went outside and stated: "It is impossible to live so more."
- Yes, they will come out. And not for political reasons, but in socio-economic. I think this is very likely primarily in large cities. But neither to the Civil War, nor to the decay of the state will not lead. I do not believe in this.
RIA Novosti / Aleksey Danichev
- But when the protest is a peaceful character, it is easy to suppress. Not in vain a person asks you a question about Shoigu and tightening punish-protective measures.
- Power is all the time moving in this direction, but you should not exaggerate the loyalty of the repressive apparatus. It is not at all as it may seem. In the critical situation, they simply may not fulfill the order and remove.
- not the collapse of the country, but the outpad of some regions, such as North Caucasian, is it possible?
- I do not think that these republics want to leave Russia. In fact, it is good in it. Where to go? Without it, they will not survive at all. Therefore, they will bargain, trying to impose their conditions. But as a result of political changes, I think the policy of Moscow to these republics will become more suspended and meaningful. Personally, I do not think that paying huge money for political loyalty is correct. This corrupts. Yes, and already corrupt.
"Our politicians use neo-eastity and religion until they benefit from"
- And the sane nationalist, more precisely, the national-democratic forces after Ukrainian events still remain?
- As for organized nationalism, he keeps a miserable existence. He does not allow his head to raise, many leaders like Belov are sitting behind bars. Others, like Demushkin, understand that they are worth it to show activity, so they will go after Belov. But as for nationalism in general, as a certain public mood, he is definitely exists. And these moods will soon be politically in demand.
- Are you going to revive your National Democratic Party "New Strength" when more favorable for public policy times?
- She frozen due to the fact that we were threatened with repression. But in general, I believe that today, and in the future, the party format is unpromising. I think that other formats will be in demand.
RIA Novosti / Yuri Ivanov
- What are the prospects for entering the authorities of the members of the Committee on January 25, Igor Strelkova and other Novorossovov?
- in this organization there different people: both nationalists, and Soviet "Imperbs", and Orthodox monarchists. I do not see that this organization has some prospects. But some of the individual leaders, there are. And I do not exclude that 2-3 people will be able to play their role in those future political changes, which we talked above.
- In general, is there a chance for Russians to self-organize the example of Israel or Japan, that is, to create a national state? This is a question from one of our readers.
- Such a chance, of course, is, since the Russians feel like a single people. It is Russians, and not Russians. So Russia is actually in fact a national state, it remains only to issue an add-on - laws - in accordance with this reality and change policies so that it coincides with the interests of the national majority.
- Do you think, in our days, Russians have a national self-consciousness?
- Yes, it is, it manifests itself in everyday life. Just the Russians are afraid to speak out loud. At least two thirds of the Russians feel their national consciousness. Just do not confuse real Russian and "literary" - national costumes, kitchen, tools, something else. It's just a lubok. The National State is a modern state, not archaism.
"The policy of Moscow to these republics will become more weighted. Pay huge money for political loyalty - wrong " RIA Novosti / Said Tsarnaev
- The current "Russian nationalists" in the overwhelming mass of their own - Orthodox activists and are convinced that the Russian national state is obliged to stand on the foundation of Orthodoxy, without it. Personally, this format of the national state is unpleasant. It is better a multinational and cosmopolitan society, but the secular and freedom of the ideological, including religious, choice.
- Your replica is appropriate. But, first, if you fear, it is better not to do anything at all, even from home it is not to go out. There is always a risk when you do something. And, secondly, the results of this process will depend on those who are at the head of it. Because there is a common sociological pattern: those who are downstairs copy those at the top. And if the elite will put clear goals, understandable and profitable national majority, nothing terrible will happen.
Suppose you say: we want to provide the national majority available housing to turn the demographic situation. The bottoms respond: "Great! We want! " This is the national state. But if someone instead of clear and understandable purposes uses the myths of the type "Stalinism" and says that it is in it that the invisibility of the power of the property is concentrated in it, then this is no longer a national state. This is completely different.
- And "Neo-Eurasia", which is dominated in the official ideology of the ruling group, is it serious? What do you think they really believe it or use or use as the same notorious "Stalinism"?
- Believe it or not to believe - such a question in politics is not worth it. They consider it comfortable for themselves. This gives a certain ideological substantiation of what they do. They are used until it is profitable. And religion, by the way, too. And if suddenly, the fluger of sentiment in society swam in the other direction, they will become Russian nationalists or even Muslims. Therefore, it is not necessary to sharpen attention on this issue.
"Russia did not make efforts to preserve Ukraine in the orbit of his influence"
- Since we mentioned neo-eastity, we will finish our conversation of a series of questions about Ukraine: it is perhaps the main victim of the ideology of "neo-eurosis", or the "Russian world".
Our reader reminds you that the Brzezinsky is attributed to the statement: "Russia ceases to be an empire without Ukraine, Russia automatically turns into the empire with Ukraine." That is, I want to know your opinion: is it seen in the rupture of relations between Russia and Ukraine "the shaggy paw of American imperialism"?
- I believe that the separation of Russia and Ukraine was a natural process. It began not two years ago, and in the early 1990s. And then, many analysts said that Ukraine will inevitably be drifting towards the West. Moreover, Russia did not make much effort to preserve Ukraine in the orbit of his influence. Or, at least, they made not the efforts that would be effective. I mean not the supply of gas at reduced prices, but cultural and intelligent levers of influence. They were not used, and it was not to do with it. So, I repeat, it is quite a natural process.
And after the joining of Crimea to Russia, the war in the Donbass, the point of no return is passed. Now Ukraine will never definitely never be with Russia a fraternal state. At the same time, I do not think that the West will take Ukraine. Most likely, it will have a poor existence. But this does not mean that she will come to a bow to Moscow. Anti-Moskovskiy and anti-Russian moods will now be a cornerstone for the formation of the national identity of Ukrainians. Here the question can be closed.
RIA Novosti / Andrey Stenin
- So Russia is never to be an empire?
- Well, it was understandable even in the 1990s, and not only in connection with the geopolitical views of Brzezinsky. And now we were at the point of the post-Soviet existence. Rather, we are stuck there and do not develop anywhere. True, this inertia has already exhausted itself. Therefore, political changes are inevitable.
- Is there an opportunity in the future to compromise to solve the "Crimean question" to get rid of sanctions?
- I think there is a chance to freeze this problem and ensure the de facto recognition of the Crimea. As for the Crimean Tatars, they are not very much. And they can offer such a formula based on which they would understand what is better to live in the world. If they understand that there is no other alternative for them, they will become wicked. This is quite enough. De Yura recognition of the Crimea of \u200b\u200bthe Russian Territory depends on the position of Ukraine. If we talk about sanctions against Russia, that is, those that have been introduced behind the Crimea, and are - which for the Donbass. And these are different sanctions. And sanctions for the Crimea are far from the most sensitive.
- What do you think is waiting for Ukraine in general and Donbass - in particular?
- The fate of Ukraine depends on the quality of its elite. If there is an elite, capable of bringing the country to new rails, then it will be not bad. I do not think it will break up or become a federation. But, one way or another, will remain a "sick person of Europe".
The fate of Donbass is terrible. With any situation, it is doomed to be some "black hole" on a geopolitical card. Most likely, it will be a surrenized territory, but de facto as part of Ukraine, nor in Russia. It will be a region where crime, corruption, economic decline - some European Somalia will reign. There is no point in modernizing something there, because the Donbass is not particularly needed to anyone. For Ukraine and for Russia is a stone on the legs. But people get used to everything. I have familiar and relatives who live there, have already adapted to such a lifestyle and leave from there they do not want.
RIA Novosti / Dan Levi
reference
Valery Solovey was born in 1960. After the end of the historical faculty of Moscow State University worked at the Academy of Sciences, Gorbachev Fund. Passed internship in the London School of Economics and Political Sciences. Doctor of Historical Sciences (the topic of the thesis - "Russian Question" and its influence on the internal and foreign policy of Russia "). Currently, Professor MGIMO, Head of the Department of Public Relations, the author of the course of lectures on manipulation by public consciousness.
Valery Solovy: By 2024, Russia will have 15-20 regions and state physiology
Political analyst, Professor MGIMO Valery Solovey expressed his opinion on rumors about the close constitutional reform in Russia.
The other day the Chairman of the Constitutional Court of Valery Zorkin said about the need to change the Constitution of the country.
According to Professor Nightingale, by 2024 the number of subjects of the federation will decrease in Russia by combining and the Gosideology will be introduced.
Valery Solovey:
I had to write on this topic and actually repeat.
1. Preparation of constitutional reform, or rather the cardinal changes to a wide range of constitutional laws was launched in the fall of 2017.
2. Changes were developed in the following directions:
a) the formation of a new configuration of state power and management;
b) a cardinal reduction in the number of subjects of the Federation (up to 15-20) by combining them for the purpose of disposal of management, leveling levels of development and neutralization of ethnosparatist trends;
c) the decisive editing of the laws on elections and political parties (by no means in the sense of liberalization);
d) the introduction of state ideology.
Well, something else.
3. Initially, it was not clear what kind of change and in what volume will give "green light", and what - no.
But in any case, they were not intended to be implemented simultaneously in view of the projected strong negative reaction.
4. Sine Qua Non - Reconfiguration of Goslasti and Management, must ensure the institutional and legal framework of the system transit.
There are also several options here.
From a well-known model with an institution of the State Council as an analogue of Politburo and the role of the president's role to representation and symbolic functions before, on the contrary, strengthening and expanding the presidential powers and institutions of the Vice-President post. (There are some more options.)
5. The transit of the system must be carried out until 2024, in order to catch the enemies of the external and internal. It was assumed that decisive could be 2020-2021.
6. There is one-only reason why these deadlines could be shifted towards the decrease.
And this reason has no relation to politics and declining ratings. The situation is estimated as a disturbing, but not critical and under control.
7. And even more so, no early election it was about and could not go. The cardinal change in the organization of state-owned and management is not carried out in order to conduct elections and expose the system to the strongest stress.
8. Among the key beneficiaries of the reform of the authorities are called three people, which are also included in the top ten elites in their political and bureaucratic weight.
