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The United States Senate adopted the draft law on the introduction of sanctions against Russia. The document was accepted by the overwhelming majority of votes on July 27, and was already sent to the signature to the US President Donald Trump. Today, no one doubts that the effect of new sanctions will be very serious, however, experts continue to disperse - how destructive it will be. On Friday, July 28, the managing director of the company ARBAT CAPITAL Alexander Orlov commented on the content of the sanctions law, and also made a forecast on the course of the ruble for the next 6 months on the air RBC TV channel.

According to Orlov, these are the most serious sanctions from all that ever introduced against Russia. A more serious blow to the Russian economic system could only be ban on exports of Russian oil and gas. First of all, it concerns the instructions of the US Department of Finance for 180 days to work ban on investments in the sovereign debt of Russia.
These 180 days, according to the analyst, the Americans gave their "right" investors to "rethink their positions - whether they want to take all the risks that they carry sanctions, or do not want." That is, these 180 days are given to the Ministry of Finance not only in order to read the consequences of sanctions, but also in order to give these investors to leave. " The question remains to leave everything at once or not, because, according to Orlov - these six months are also "3 or 4 percent of Carry Trade profitability," says Orlov.
Which, in connection with this, stressed that the forecast for the ruble for the next six months can only be negative. Since the only thing that supports Russian currency is currently afloat - relatively high oil prices. However, even despite this, the ruble will decline further. The expert also predicts the fact that Western European investors will escape from the Russian market, which reasonably may be fear of sanctions and fines from the United States. Such precedents happened to European banks that continued to cooperate with countries under sanctions, such as Iran. However, the expert does not believe in those catastrophic scenarios, which are voiced by a number of famous analysts. According to the expert - by the end of the year, the ruble exchange rate will remain in the corridor from 62 to 70 rubles.
Referring to the situation with the Russian "oil" after the entry into force of the Sanctions, the expert stressed that due to the consensus of the European side, the Russian oil sector, received a number of sentibles - in particular, the loan period was increased from 30 days to 90, according to the expert, the expert is still " Not debt lending, and shopping. "
The expert also stressed that in addition to political aspects, the United States decide important economic aspects, expanding the possibilities for their oil and gas companies that would like to expand their influence on the European market.
In addition, the expert touched another important point of the sanctivation law: it concerns Russian oligarchs who have significant assets in the United States or in Western Europe. Now, according to Orlov, they will have to "strain a little, and check how much they can be tied to the current Russian authorities."

In Russia and the EU think about how to answer new US sanctions against the Russian Federation. If the bill will sign Donald Trump, a new restriction pack will become the most large-scale and serious since 2014. It concerns, first of all, energy and implies punishment for cooperation with Russian companies. This is exactly what caused a stormy negative reaction in Europe. Maxim Zharov pays attention to the fact that in Russia this document is perceived non-serious. And in fact, new sanctions will change not only the placement of forces in the world, but also a domestic political situation.

In the coming days, the Senate Congress of the United States will approve a large-scale program for the target political and economic destabilization of the three countries elected by the American establishment as world "boys for beating." Such, according to the American elite, are North Korea, Iran and Russia. After approval by Congress, the new American package of anti-Russian sanctions will be filed with Donald Trump, which, despite its election conversations about the possibility of canceling sanctions against Russia, this bill will be forced to sign. From that moment on, Russia and the whole world will begin to live in a new geopolitical reality.

Also, without exaggeration, it can be said that the signing of a document with the sinister heading "The Law on Countering America's opponents through sanctions" will lead to an equally steep turn of the domestic political situation in Russia. The last one happened in our country in the spring of 2014 after the reunification of the Crimea with Russia.

Today, America legally places the era of new McCarthyism. Last time, such a political paranoia covered the United States in the mid-40s - early 50s of the last century, when, after World War II, for the sake of supporting internal stability, the American elite led an unrestrained hunt for "Agents of Communism" inside the country and beyond. Then grateful macartism inside the United States led to the Caribbean crisis - a dramatic collision of the ambitions of two superpowers of the world.

Unfortunately, the notorious "law on countering America's opponents by sanctions" in the case of its implementation in practice will lead world powers along the same way. With this approach to the United States to conduct cases on the world arena, the culmination of the geopolitical confrontation of the leading countries of the world in the form of a local military conflict or a series of terrorist attacks becomes almost inevitable.

The key difference between the current package of anti-Russian sanctions from all that America has tried to apply against Russia earlier, it is not in the new tightening of the conditions for short-term lending to Russian banks and oil and gas companies. The United States legally issues a permanent mechanism of repression against the part of Russia's political and economic elite, which keeps its capital exclusively in America and Europe.

Not later than half a year after the adoption of the draft law "On Countering America's opponents", the US Ministry of Finance and National Intelligence must submit to the Congress report on the penetration channels of Russian oligarchs and "semi-state organizations to the key sectors of the American economy: stock market, bank capital, real estate. In the future, such reports on the basis of the US Congress, an increasingly sensible in the role of a "global judge", will endure "death sentences" of those or other Russian businessmen and politicians, should be submitted annually. And it already sounds serious. This is a specific and tangible threat to the country.

Unfortunately, if you judge the first reaction of our politicians and officials to a new package of sanctions, they still do not perceive this threat seriously. Half-rude threats to sit up Americans from our pilotable spacecraft Soyuz, delivering them to the ISS and a "symmetrical answer" on sanctions in the form of expulsion from Russia of a new party of American diplomats similar to anything, but not only serious, decent response.

Meanwhile, the illusions of our politicians and businessmen should no longer be. They actually declare war on all fronts. And this is a war on destruction.

"The law on countering America's opponents by means of sanctions" primarily means the futility of the hopes of many representatives of large Russian business on the fact that "America will be able to negotiate." It is no secret that some Russian oligarchs who have fallen under the action of sanctions, who are hooked, who are in courts try to dodge these sanctions. But it does not work. And it will not work.

Moreover, after the entry into force of this law, which introduces the permanent mechanism of personal repression, such attempts to "agree" become, to put it mildly, contrary to the status of a citizen of the Russian Federation. I think that this dilemma is acute in the near future in front of many russian oligarchs. What will lead to a change in the placement of forces on the Russian political Olympus on the eve of the presidential election, I think it is not necessary to explain.

Another major consequence of the entry into force of this American law will be a cardinal shift for Russia economic Course Governments. In a situation where American and European markets are closed for Russia, you want, do not want, but you will have to move to the stimulation of internal sources of economic growth, increase, directly say, not too much successful expansion to the markets East Asia. This steep turn in the economy becomes inevitable, no matter how much it wanted to avoid government and other liberals.

So what should Russia respond to this new surge of McCarthyism in America?

So far, Americans declare war to us, and we laugh daring over them.

Laughing with laughter, but to create inside America and outside it such a situation so that the "law on countering America's opponents through sanctions" began to work against it, it is quite possible. Personnel Czechhard in the Trump Administration and almost already real threat Impiches President of the United States in 2018, as well as not started by Brexit and deep inner spill in the EU create good conditions for effective configre from Russia, Iran and China.

Stand still and wait for mercy from the West of Russia anymore. Therefore, if we are allegedly accused of interfering with American politics, you will have to intervene. Otherwise, in the XXI century, in contrast to the century of the XX century, the world will lead the world to the new Caribbean crisis alone, and at the most critical moment just will be stopped.

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As Vladimir Putin will answer "the wishing" introduction of "all the promised sanctions" told "Pravd.Ru" economist Andrei Suzdaltsev.

Vladimir Putin at the International Forum "Russian Energy Week" said that "for Russia it would be good if everyone would have to introduce anti-Russian sanctions established all possible restrictive measures at once and as soon as possible." "It would unleash our hands to protect their national interests with the means that we consider the most effective for us," the president said.

In his opinion, the sanctions harm those who introduce them, "therefore we never supported and will not support illegal sanctions that are entered bypassing the United Nations." Putin stressed that the sanctions policy conducted by the United States underlines confidence in the dollar as a global reserve currency, and this is an erroneous path. "Really saw the bitches on which they sit, it is strange even, surprisingly," he noticed. According to the president, this is a typical error of any empire.

As said "True. Ru" deputy Faculty of World Economy and HSE Politics Andrei Suzdaltsev, "our president has always been distinguished by political cunning. "According to the expert, Putin" provokes opponents ", because" knows perfectly that there are not imposed by the sanctions, although they are very susceptible to external influence, "and their authorization can cause Russia much harm, I noticed an expert.

For example, it is possible to prohibit the sale of Russian energy in the foreign market, but the price of oil will immediately jump to $ 120 per barrel and "it will be an international crisis, they will forget about all sanctions."

The sanctions, according to the expert, "this is today there are more conversations" in the style of Ukraine, which "says loudly, but does not do anything": Trading with Russia is preserved, the railway communication is maintained, Russian investments are growing.

"The fact is that European markets are small. And seemingly not a very large percentage of trade with Russia in Germany and Italy, but they clearly close the valuable industry, which works for Russia, and this is already scrupulous," explained Andrei Suzdaltsev.

In addition, according to him, the sanctions learned to bypass. A vivid example is "like Europe with the help of Alexander Lukashenko, delivering smuggling to Russia foods that are under the embargo." You can still subject to sanctions of people, Russian companies and companies working with Russia. But Russian companies are joint-stock companies, where many Western investors, and the money that earned Western companies go to competitors. "As you can see - Boomerang," Andrei Suzdaltsev noticed.

"It's still very important - this is, of course, the policy of import substitution. Yes, sanctions are negative, yes, it is bad, yes, we cannot converted, we cannot develop our economies because of this we are limited in credits. But on the other hand, it is Test for our economy. There is no political decision only positive or only negative. The task of any policy. "

Andrei Suzdaltsev believes that all possible sanctions options have already been analyzed, and finding something effective "insanely difficult." "The traditional policy towards Russia approached the natural end, she simply exhausted," the economist concluded.

We remind you that the Ministry of Finance of Russia skeptically reacted to sanctions against Russian debt by the United States. As follows from the statement of the Ministry of Finance, such initiatives were voiced before, however, they were not implemented. The agency recalled that earlier the US Department of Finance that the expansion of sanctions and their possible distribution to the Russian State Dolg would cause a negative effect for American investors.

On the other hand, in a statement of Assistant Minister of Finance of the US Marshall Billingsli for the Subcommittee of the House of Representatives of the Congress on Monetary Policy, it is said that "Russia's economy is too large and well integrated into the global economy, the International Financial System and World Delivery Channels", so to Russia " It is impossible to apply sanctions identical sanctions against Iran and the DPRK. "

Two years ago, sanctions introduced against Russia. Then it did not scare anyone. Remember, all these jokes about "do not mix my Iskander." But as the time has shown, the consequences of the sanctions felt almost everything.

The first package of anti-Russian sanctions was introduced in mid-March 2014, when Crimea actually entered into Russia. In April and May, due to the war in East of Ukraine, the West introduced the second package of sanctions. The third was introduced in June after the collapse of the Boeing in the Donetsk region. The list of sanctions is huge, mainly they relate to trade and visa restrictions, refusal from civil, economic and military cooperation, terminating the financing of Russian organizations.

President of Russia, Sergei Glazyev, recently stated that Russia's losses from West sanctions in 250 billion dollars were estimated. This is 17,250 trillion rubles - 2 trillion rubles more than the All-Russian budget for 2015.

These are the main, but few consequences that have turned for ordinary Russians two years of sanctions and the crisis that followed them.

Employment

Since the fall of 2014, employers have almost ceased to look for new employees and ceased to increase salary. Employees started hard to hold on their jobs. In September of this year, the average unemployment rate in the country was 4.9%.

In early 2015, Rosstat already counted 5.5% of the unemployed (4.2 million people). And at the end of 2015 there were 5.8% (4.4 million people). By this time, more than 2.2 thousand enterprises said that they have dismissed part-time employees who are suspended from work. In just 2015, approximately 633.3 thousand people were reduced.

In the same period of 2015, Foma specialists recorded the growth of protest activity at industrial enterprises - it was 45%. In the six months of 2015, 189 labor protests occurred at Russian enterprises.

Interestingly, there was no contraction in the oil and gas sector. In Lukoil, for example, they say that to reduce the number of people employed in mining, processing and trading, there is no reason. On the contrary, they grow the number of drilling brigades. A lot of abbreviations were at small and medium-sized businesses, their major mass occurred at the beginning of 2015. And by the end of 2015, they were calculated, where they reduced most: in the Moscow region - up to 45% of employees, in Moscow - 30%, in the Yaroslavl region - 20%. Currently, 631 thousand people are under the risk of dismissal.

It is important to understand that these are official statistics, the real state of affairs is much worse.

Salary

In 2014, the average monthly nominal salary in Russia was 32,500 rubles. In 2015, it grew almost up to 34,000 rubles. The problem is only that due to inflation and depreciation of the ruble decreased its purchasing power. If in 2014 it was 101.2% of the average monthly salary of the previous year (i.e. increased by 1.2%), in 2015 it amounted to 90.7% (that is, almost 10% fell).

The strongest fall in the purchasing power of salaries occurred in May 2014. Compared to May 2013, it amounted to 14%. The last time this was in 1998.

Buying behavior

With the introduction of sanctions and the beginning of the rapid growth of inflation, Russians began to spend more on products. If in developed countries people spend 12-18% of income on food, then we have 46%. At the same time, the Russians began in more than Do personal economy and grow their vegetables and fruits. In 2014, such people were 39%, and in 2015 there were much more of them - 46%.

Over the past year, people began to spend less on domestic chemistry: now they acquire soap, powders and shampoos cheaper grades. The sale of white and yellow cheeses fell by 8%, but cheap sausage cheese became more popular by 24%, melted - by 10%. Less began to buy meat, fish and seafood, but cereals, pasta, flour and sugar began to enjoy in great demand. Also over the past year, trade in sales has grown 39%.

IN recent months People try not to spend salaries, do not make large purchases, do not take money off. Many more take savings from banks.

Prices

With the fall of the ruble exchange rate in Russia, the prices of products began to grow rapidly. Over the past two years, the inflation rate amounted to 24.27%, but for some products prices have grown far. For example, since August 2014, by August 2015, cod fillets went up by 20-100% (depending on the store).

Milk rose by 10-20%, 5-15% chicken, pork by 10-15%, sausages by 10-50%. The prices of vegetables have greatly increased: the cabbage has rise in price by 13%, beets 10-25%, carrots by 10%, Bulgarian pepper by 40-70%. Fruit is the same: apples have become more expensive by 25-40%, bananas by 17-27%, oranges by 20-80%.

SAVING

At the end of 2015, Nafi held another survey. Then 48% of people told that inflation caused damage family budgetBut did not affect nutrition. Another 37% reported that price increases affected them essentially and they are forced to limit themselves in their products.

48% of Russians with the arrival of the crisis abandoned vacation, 39% save on clothes and shoes, 38% - on visiting cinema and restaurants. 23% refrain from receiving guests and relatives, 22% - from treatment, 20% - from buying the necessary food.

POVERTY

Conducting its research, VTsIOM divided all Russians into three groups:
- prosperous people who still do not feel the consequences of the crisis;
- fighting people who noticed that it became worse, but coped with troubles;
- suffering people who experience all the crisis and can not fight with him.
In November 2014, the group of suffering accounted for 16% of the adult population. By January 2015, she sharply increased to 47%. In October 2015, it was already 60%.

In 2013, the income below the subsistence minimum was in 9% of the population (12.5 million people). In 2014, they were already 14% (19.8 million), and in 2016 - 16% (about 23 million). The reasons for such rapid growth are high inflation: if in 2014 it was possible to live 7,688 rubles, then 9,662 rubles were already required.

Experts say that the bulk of the poor is an adult able-bodied population. Such a paradox happened due to the fact that work with a low salary is strongly distributed in Russia. In order for a person to go beyond the line of poverty, he must receive a salary equal to a 1.5 subsistence minimum, - about 15 thousand rubles. But according to statistics, approximately a quarter of the Russian-working salary less than this amount. The minimum wage in Russia is 5,965 rubles, that is, not 1.5 times more, but almost twice the subsistence minimum.

Weakening of the ruble

It began in 2014 after the fall in oil prices and the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions. If on January 1, 2014, the US dollar exchange rate was 32.66 rubles, and euro - 45.06, then from January to March 2014, the ruble was represented by 14.9%: the dollar cost more than 37 rubles, and the euro rose above 51 rubles. These were the highest rates since the crisis of 2009.

The fall of the ruble continued, and on December 15 his sharp collapse occurred: courses made up 64.45 and 78.87 rubles per dollar and euros. This day in the media was called "Black Monday". The next day, on Tuesday, December 16, the ruble fell even more: dollar and euro courses reached 79 and 98 rubles. This day was called "Black Tuesday". According to the results of 2014, the ruble, according to Bloomberg, was the worst currency of the year.

In 2015, the ruble weakened and strengthened, holding within the course of 50-70 per dollar and 53-80 per euro. Under New Year The ruble again weakened again, and in January 2016 several times updated the minimum values \u200b\u200bfrom the "Black Tuesday" December 2014.

Mood

After the return of the Crimea, the Putin rating significantly increased significantly. In August, 57% of respondents were ready to vote for him (if we exclude from the whole mass of indecent and not going to vote, then 87%). Putin's activities have not approved only 15% of respondents. To the question "Country is moving in the right direction?" The affirmative answer was then given 64% of respondents, and negative - 22%.

In October 2015, 89.9% of respondents already expressed his approval of Putin - this is a record indicator in Russia. Such a rise in popular location was associated with the beginning of a military operation in Syria. In January 2016, the confidence rating by the president was at 85%.

A small fall of the presidential rating, specialists associate with the complexity of the economic situation. It applies not specifically to the president, but to all authorities. 55% of Russians do not believe that the government has a plan to save the economy.

Broadcast

From the beginning from the end

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Final quotes today are. Dollar 66.6 rubles., Euro 76,85 rub. The previous closure is 1% and 0.7%, respectively. Our online closes on it. Let's hope that the next "black swans" will not arrive from Washington.

Over time exchange rate It may return to the level below 65 rubles per dollar. In the foreign exchange market, increased volatility will continue for a few more days, the course can fluctuate in the range of 65-70, says Vashchenko. But after the sales wave of bonds decreases, the course, according to Vashchenko, has every chance to fall below 65.

The reaction to new sanctions is not so tough as before. If in April, the market fell about 10% in 1 day, today, although there were strong sales in the morning, the situation in the stock market was relatively quickly calmed down, Georgy Vashchenko, head of operations in the Russian stock market IR Freeda Finance, notes.

Even the most stringent version of US sanctions prohibiting dollar payments for Russian state banks will not prevent exporters from the Russian Federation to sell oil, they consider the surveyed RIA Novosti economists. In particular, the ex-deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Professor of the Faculty of Economic Sciences HSE Oleg Vyugin believes that the energy company can leave public in private banks and receive payments for these accounts from European credit institutions.

Senator-Republic John McCain expressed support for new anti-Russian sanctions, which was announced on Wednesday, August 8. "It's nice to see the State Department introduces new sanctions against Russia for chemical attacks in Britain," he wrote in his tivtter. Senator also noted that the State Department should exercise "supervision" by the fact that sanctions are implemented "quickly and fully".

The stock market has made a small jerk and closed an hour ago with an increase of 0.72% to 2309.6 in the Mosbier index. Ruble gradually gives the position. At 20:00 Moscow time, the dollar was given 66.42 rubles, for the euro - 76.75 rubles.

Analysts give forecast for tomorrow. If today at night there will be some other frightening add-ons or leaks in relation to sanctions, then tomorrow the course can test the mark of 67.5 in a pair against the dollar, but after this will follow the decline, it believes Artem deyes from Amarkets. He notes that such oscillations in the foreign exchange market often follow in one scheme: first a sharp movement, sometimes within 2-3 days, and then gradual, much slower, reverse return of the course by about 50% of the first impulse. So it was in 2015, and in 2016, and in April of this year - the whole difference is only on scale.

Meanwhile, the net outflow of capital from Russia, according to the Central Bank, in the period from January to July 2018 rose 2.5 times and amounted to $ 21.5 billion. "Clean export of capital by the private sector in January-July 2018, according to the bank's assessment Russia, increased to $ 21.5 billion from $ 8.7 billion in January-July 2017, "the report says. The regulator stressed that the current dynamics of the indicator was mainly due to the growth of foreign assets of other sectors, along with the continuing reduction in the obligations of banks before non-residents.

In general, analysts believe that the current round of weakening of the ruble will lead to some price increases closer to the end of the year. At the same time, the peak and inflationary expectations of the population associated with increasing VAT from 18% to 20% in 2019 are raised. But while the forecast is moderately optimistic - inflation this year is unlikely to go beyond the target level of 4%. According to the end of July, it was, according to Rosstat, 2.5%.

Until you should wait for the take-off of prices for goods because of the weakening of the ruble. First, the course fell a couple of percent, which is not critical for importers. In addition, the prices of consumer goods react to external factors with a certain time interval, if it is not only a situation of an acute economic crisis, as in 2014-2015, Milchakova notes from Alpari. Usually this effect becomes a notable simple buyer no earlier than in a month. There is no crisis in the economy now. In addition, seasonal factors operate in summer - prices for a number of food products, primarily on fruit and vegetable products, do not grow.

Russia has long been living in the period of economic pressure and seemed to have learned to cope with this. But such sustainability leads to a slowdown in economic growth, Andrei Kiselev, managing partner of the Di-Invest Group, is arguing. "I think a development scenario is a symbiosis of measures to combat growing pressure and measures to increase investment potential. Do you need reciprocal measures? Looks like needed. However, today it is better to focus on the growth curve, "he believes.

The publication of the draft law on the new anti-Russian sanctions prepared by American congressmen caused a bad panic among investors, which today stated only slightly, considers Sofia Kirsanova, Senior Analyst of the UK "Raiffeisen Capital". Market participants reassured the US State Department comments regarding Aeroflot, which direct sanctions on the airline are not planned. In addition, positively on investor sentiment influenced the fact that the first round of sanctions, which will take effect on August 22 will have a not very significant effect, because it will be mainly banned for the sale of the Russian Federation of military and dual-use. And the second round, 3 months after the first, should be constant on the financial operations of American banks with Russian, as well as a ban on direct air transportation. Accordingly, investors considered that the time interval between the first and second rounds will allow russian authorities somehow smooth out the born conflict, explains the market sentiment analyst.

A possible ban on the supply of rocket engines will hit both Russia itself. NPO Energomash CEO of Igor Arbuzov spoke at the end of July of this year about signing an agreement with United Launch Alliance for the supply of six RD-180 to 2020, which will be used at the launch of Atlas 5 missiles.

Chairman of the Committee of the Federation Council on Budget Sergey Rabukhin said that the Russian side could respond to new sanctions from the United States in the field of unique developments. According to Rabukhin, Russia can answer the American side, banning imports in the United States RD-180 rocket engines. These US engines are used for flights to the international space station.

The interim total of today's difficult day. The stock market was able to resist fall. The Mosbier index at six o'clock in the evening Moscow time grew by 0.1% to 2295 points. "Blue chips" graved 0.15%. The ruble for the last hour declined slightly - the dollar is traded at 66.3, euro at 76.8.

Russia will not fulfill the conditions of the United States, which were exhibited for the clarification of the second round of sanctions on the "cripples". In the Russian Foreign Ministry they were called "unacceptable." "As a condition for removing the US sanctions, the requirements for us are promptly unacceptable for us, and this is the first stage. We are threatened with further buildup of sanitation pressure. Thus, the United States consciously goes along the path of further exacerbation of bilateral relations, which, in fact, are so reduced to their efforts to almost zero, "- said Maria Zakharov. Accordingly, there should be another wave of restrictive measures.

Do not drive Russia into the corner! The promised freezing of bank accounts is a too incredible scenario, it will never be sure to shust. "Because if you compare such a sanctional struggle with military actions, then freeze accounts in banks is like to block or poison the water to the enemy. The experienced military so never do, because they understand - this makes the situation for an enemy hopeless, and in a hopeless situation, people begin to act desperately and even heroically, and the precipitating cannot oppose anything to this heroism, "he says. Freeze money on your accounts - this means to force another country to act desperately, and no one wants the real direct clash, no one is interested in it. I believe that the ruble by September will be released in a new range against the dollar, 65-70 rubles.

Investors digest the State Department of Messedi and decided that it was too early to escape from Russia. At 17:00, the Mosbier index came out in plus, adding 0.05%. But the ruble could not play the morning collapse. The dollar is still trading about 66.1 rubles, the euro in the region of 76.6.

The State Department clarified the position of sanctions. US sanctions on Russia will be aimed at exporting goods related to national security, including sectors such as specialized oil and gas technologies, as well as some electronics and sensors, said a high-ranking official of the US State Department on Thursday reuters agency. To the question whether the sanctions will be applied directly to Aeroflot, the official replied that they would not, but theoretically affect the company if it tries to import any of the goods from the sanctuction list.

There was a formal response of the Russian Foreign Ministry new sanctions. The official representative of the department Maria Zakharov said that "the Russian side will study the response to the next unfriendly step of Washington." The preposition for the introduction of new sanctions, she called "far-fetched", and conversation with Russia from the position of power and with the help of the language of ultimatums - unpromising and useless.

New sanctions will only strengthen the cooperation of Russia with its main partners, the head of Novatek, Leonid Michelson, told reporters (and he, and his company under sanctions). "The main partners that Russia have, they are not going to leave, but [plan] to develop relations. I think we will love each other even more. "

The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, recently commented on the denial of the dollar. At a press conference after graduating from the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, he stated that Russia is not going to perform sharp movements and abandon the dollar, including how from the reserve currency. But the sanctions that are introduced by the United States is a "big strategic mistake of our American partners, because they undermine the confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency." Among the promising reserve currencies, Putin mentioned the Chinese yuan.

Get rid of the dollar! Member of the Council of the Federation, Deputy Chairs of the Committee on Science, Igor Morozov, said that in response to US sanctions, Russia should refuse to use the dollar and proceed to settlements in national currencies. This is reported by the correspondent of "Gazeta.Ru". "It will not be not only our answer, but also the world community, against which wars are unleashed," Senator is sure.

The events of this week involuntarily create the impression that the American authorities decided to reveal the sustainability of the financial system of Russia, says Anton Bykov, the chief analyst at the Center for Analysis and Financial Technologies. Yes, and time was chosen suitable - August is very vulnerable to the ruble month. The ruble exchange rate to the US dollar is actively moving to the levels of 67.00-67.50 and to Euro 77.00-78.00.

Sanctions associated with the cripples announced yesterday, generally have a plus minus zero effect on the market, comments Oleg Achkasov, head of the BCS Global Markets stock trading directorate. The second round, if introduced, will negatively affect the Aeroflot - from here and its fall today. Although the fall is excessive - there are not so many revenues from flights in the USA. He also notes that everything that see now is a domestic political struggle in the United States and stamping points in elections through an anti-Russian agenda.

The course only moved a little from the previous positions, but it will probably be taken by another attack on the ruble. Meanwhile, officials explain what, in their opinion, is actually caused by US sanctions. "This is an attempt by non-competitive ways to influence the market, it is extremely harmful for the market, for consumers," the first deputy minister of energy of the Russian Federation Alexei Texler said to journalists.

The market situation stabilized, after yesterday evening the White House came out with alternative sanctions proposals, which do not look such economically painful as offers from Congress, the chief economist of Alfa-Bank, Natalia Orlova, believes. Nevertheless, the process of adoption of sanctions seems to be extremely opaque. This means that the ruble exchange rate will remain low at least in the coming weeks. It also reminds that the negative attitude of investors is distributed now to all emerging markets - the Turkish Lira remains under pressure and it dictates careful attitude towards other currencies.

The authorities continue to calm markets, business and population. "Current volatility in the markets is connected both with the next wave of the US sanction rhetoric against Russia and with an unstable situation in emerging markets. Russian economy payment balance, in last years They became much more resistant to external influences, be it oscillations of the oil situation or the introduction of economic restrictions. The Government of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank monitor the situation, possess all necessary tools to ensure financial stability and, if necessary, will be used in the framework of current legislation, as already happened, including this year, "the first Deputy Prime Minister of Finance Anton said to journalists Siluans.

So, by the middle of the day, the ruble seemed to find a point of equilibrium. Dollar - 65.9-66.1, Euro 76.4-76.5. The Mosbier index is reduced by 0.25%.

Russian parliamentarians also demonstrate calm. The head of the State Duma Commission on the legislative support of enterprises of OPK, Vladimir Gutenev, stated that the new US sanctions against Russia would stimulate import substitution and diversification of the economy. "The news, of course, is not joyful, but it does not cause much anxiety," said Gutenev (quote on RIA Novosti).

Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov is confident in the sustainability of the financial system of Russia. "The financial system is sufficiently stable. It is well known to everyone. She has proven its sustainability in fairly difficult times, "he said, commenting on the information about the new anti-Russian US sanctions. The sands stressed that the authorities hold the financial system in proper condition against the background of the unpredictable actions of the overseas partners.

The State Department believes that new sanctions will affect the goods for hundreds of millions of dollars. In addition, the special telephone briefing it was stated that restrictions would affect up to 70% of the Russian economy. This statements, of course, far from the famous phrase of Barack Obama "The Russian economy is broken in Klochery".

The Russian Embassy in the United States also suggested that the American authorities betray the publicity in the scripture case. This is reported on the website of the diplomission. "Reaffirmed that we invariably stand up for the open and transparent investigation into the crime in Salisbury and the punishment of the perpetrators. They offered to betray the publicity of the correspondence on this issue, "the text of the official commentary says. The embassy noted that this response to this offer was not followed.

At the Russian Embassy in the United States, the new sanctions commented on this: "The eighth of August our adviser to the Messenger in the State Department announced new" Dragon "sanctions under the controversial pretext of" use by the Government Russian Federation»Neriva-paralytic substance" Novice "against a citizen of Great Britain Sergey Skriplia and his daughter. No facts or evidence, as already heard, did not sound. "

Two hours after the opening of the auction, the ruble went to the counterattack. The dollar rolled back to 66, euro to 76.4.

"What are the forecasts for the restoration of the ruble? Favorable. What to do? The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has a good tested medium-term mechanism - ruble-dollar swaps. But it is for an average term. Today, in no case cannot begin stock exchange currency trading (stocks you can!) Without a thorough preliminary selection of applications for the purchase of currency. In such applications, the purpose of the purchase of currency should be clearly spelled out and the purpose of the purchase of currency must be clearly spelled out - especially, in excess of $ 250-300 million, "says Rozhankovsky.

Yesterday's attack on the ruble is a producer trick that Vladimir Rozhankovsky is confident, an expert of the International Financial Center. It indicates that in the morning in the region of 11: 00-12: 00 there were reports that the United States is ready to postpone with new sanctions, if Russia promises more firmly execute the Convention on the non-proliferation of chemical weapons. But already at 19:00 or so it was announced that the United States introduces sanctions against Russia because of the "case of scripts". And, at about the same time, I have information that Senator Rand Paul brought a letter from Donald Trump to Moscow. "Obviously (although it is not yet unusable) that the aforementioned absurdity is connected with the fact that there was a leak of information that the letter of Trump Putin is already on his table, so American politicians had to break the whole logical chain, all plans," the expert believes.

Latest reports from stock fronts. There are positional battles. The dollar fastened around 66.2-66.3, the euro is trying to take the storm of 76.8. Shares on the mosserier lose moderate 0.7%.

The country's insulation can gain a catastrophic scale and the economy from the current stagnation will go to the recession phase, and it can be quite protracted. Therefore, it is better to be ready for the worst scenario than to hope for the best, does not add igniter optimism.

Sanctions will also be banned for issuing licenses to export to Russia of dual-purpose goods, which are of great importance to national security. Also, restrictive measures will affect test and calibration equipment - and as a whole, the components of systems developed for use in aviation as on-board electronics transmits NBC News. "Also [we] introduce sanctions and cooperation in space, but we collaborate somewhere, but somewhere dependent. In this sense, we will consider each position separately, "indicates the communique of the State Department. The first round of new sanctions will begin on August 22. The second wave will roll later and will affect almost all exports imports, if Russia does not give America, some guarantees for the non-use of various "newcomers" and will put independent observers to themselves.

Today, the main topic will be the new sanctions that the State Department announced yesterday, after the closure of trading in Moscow. This time, the informable case of squeaks became a reason for new measures of impact on Russia. As reported in the State Department, Moscow is accused of violating international law due to the use of the Novice poisoning substance in British Salisbury in the poisoning of Julia and Sergey Skripalya. In accordance with the 1991 law, the use of any country of biological and chemical weapons entails restrictive measures by the United States. Measures that suggest introducing the United States concern the prohibition of exports to Russia of goods related to the National Security: electronic devices of dual-use and their components.

In addition to the weakening of the ruble, investors, especially foreign, sold Russian bonds of a federal loan and shares of domestic companies. Mosbery index fell by 0.83%. To the panic in the markets is far away, but yesterday was clearly failed.

Investors played against the ruble against the background of the previous wave of news. Senators and Congressmen made a bill with the ban on the purchase of American residents of new issues of Russian debt securities, as well as for a possible limitation of settlements in dollars for banks with states of Sberbank, VTB, VEB, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank, Bank of Moscow.

On Wednesday, August 8, the ruble fell to minimum values \u200b\u200bsince November 2016. The national currency rate stopped yesterday at a mark of 65.55 rubles per dollar and 76.13 rubles per euro. This is 2% and 2.5% higher than the level of previous closure. But exchange players have not yet knew about a surprise that prepared the State Department.